Periodic rounds of heavy rain caused rises on the region's rivers. Heavy rain upstream in the Mississippi Valley caused minor flooding on the Mississippi River down to southern Illinois.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Periodic rounds of heavy rain caused rises on the region's rivers. Heavy rain upstream in the Mississippi Valley caused minor flooding on the Mississippi River down to southern Illinois. This same water backed up the Big Muddy River and contributed to minor flooding around Murphysboro.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 1:30 PM CST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 230 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016 After a variably cloudy start to the day, the best low level moisture set up in our eastern areas (EVV tristate area) from mid morning onward, which meant a fairly cloudy day there. This helped to keep temperatures rather cool in parts of southern IL, southwest IN and the Pennyrile region of west KY. We also had some gusty north to northwest winds which made the cool weather feel even colder. Cold air advection continued throughout the morning and afternoon which did not allow highs to get out of the 50s/60s. After we clear out later tonight, winds will drop off due to surface high pressure building into the region. This will set the stage for rather chilly conditions. Lows tomorrow morning will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The aforementioned high pressure will center itself directly over the area by Sunday afternoon, making for a pleasant, quiet day with highs back into the 60s. This high will shift east Sunday night and allow winds to become southerly by Monday. Meanwhile we will see a steady increase in cloud cover Sunday night into Monday as moisture begins advecting into the area with low level flow increasing. Rain chances enter the forecast on Monday, as upper level energy moves east from the Plains and enhances lift north of a developing warm front across the southern Plains and the low level jet increases. The low levels remain pretty dry at least early in the day on Monday, so rain will likely become more widespread across the entire area Monday afternoon and beyond, as we saturate down and warm air advection increases. Daytime highs will remain in the 60s on Monday. We continue to see a lack of instability--both surface-based and elevated--so thunder is not anticipated at the onset of this event but we could see some by Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation will continue Monday night but there might be a relative lull in widespread precipitation sometime Monday evening but timing of these waves of precipitation is difficult at best this far out. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016 Meanwhile, on Tuesday, an upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes will swing south and gradually shove the aforementioned boundary further south Tuesday night. In the meantime, models show a decent swath of precip moving into the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning/afternoon with the approach of that trough. POPS should be decreasing as we head into Tuesday night as the boundary shifts southward. Wednesday should be dry as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region, steadily builds into the area. Lingering low level moisture will allow for some cloudiness on Wednesday but hopefully enough sunshine will be around to help us achieve some 70 degree weather again. Quiet weather should be with us on Thursday as an upper level high build over the region. Temperatures should rebound back into the 70s. Models are not agreeing when the next upper level trough will bring precipitation back into our area. Will likely have some low POPS for Thursday but increasing them Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016 In the wake of an overnight cold frontal passage, gusty northwest winds continued today with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. These winds will gradually die off later in the day, 00Z or so and pick up again Sunday aob 10 kts. Greatest cloud cover has been over KEVV/KOWB with a broken VFR deck. Given the location of the best low level moisture, this should remain the case for the rest of the afternoon, with sct cu elsewhere. The clouds should dissipate around sunset, leading to some high clouds overnight. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 438 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-151000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 438 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Big Muddy River. Some low-lying fields and woodlands were underwater, including parts of a city park in Murphysboro.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 630154.