During the first few days of the month, a cold front stalled to the south of the Ohio Valley and then lifted back north. A strong low pressure system then moved northeast across the Plains, dragging a cold front east across the Lower Ohio Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
During the first few days of the month, a cold front stalled to the south of the Ohio Valley and then lifted back north. A strong low pressure system then moved northeast across the Plains, dragging a cold front east across the Lower Ohio Valley. The rainfall associated with these frontal passages caused minor flooding on parts of the Ohio River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 11:57 AM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Paducah KY 1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap- around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow showers. While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is too soon to speculate where at this time. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week. Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday). && .AVIATION... Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississppi River, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust AOB 25 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west overnight and become northwest by late Monday morning. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && AVIATION UPDATE...BP2 SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...GM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 409 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-081100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 409 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND GREEN RIVERS. REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD HAVE ONLY MINOR IMPACTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of the Ohio River inundated some low-lying fields and woodlands along the river.
Minor flooding of the Ohio River inundated some low-lying woods and fields along the river.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 615584, 615583.