High Surf in Hawaii, February 7 to 16, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING BRIEF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...IS
PUSHING INTO THE STATE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING... BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS THAT NORMALLY
ACCELERATE NORTH WINDS DUE TO THE TERRAIN HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A
WIND ADVISORY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE LANAI...KAHOOLAWE...KOHALA
MOUNTAINS...AND FROM HILO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUNA DISTRICT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE
WINDS TO RETURN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENT DEW POINTS AT
KAUAI OBSERVATION SITES ARE READING IN THE UPPER 40/S TO LOW 50/S
WITH MIMIC SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATING A BONE DRY 0.4
INCHES NEAR THE GARDEN ISLE. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED
UPCOMING LIGHT WINDS... NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME SEA LEVELS LOCATIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HONOLULU AIRPORT WILL
SEE ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR WITH FORECAST TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60/S OVER THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL FEEL COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70/S FOR MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WARNING LEVELS SINCE MIDNIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING BRISK NORTH
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR STRONG WINDS OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THROUGH VALLEYS. WINDS
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY OVER KAUAI AND THEN DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE THICKEST CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FOUND OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU. EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE
AMENDED IN THE NEXT HOUR TO DROP IT FOR KAUAI AND OAHU WERE
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN IMPROVEMENT. THE AIRMET WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
ROUGH CONDITIONS TODAY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
THE WINDS EASE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE CURRENT NW SWELL WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEW NW SWELL.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAK
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK SWELL
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR 20
FEET FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE ENSEMBLE MEAN...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY- LEVELS FRIDAY. FURTHER
FINE- TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK OF THIS SWELL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION