Bands of showers and scattered thunderstorms developed along a strong cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Surface dew points were in the 60's in the southerly flow ahead of the front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Bands of showers and scattered thunderstorms developed along a strong cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Surface dew points were in the 60's in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Some locally heavy rain occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 26, 3:13 AM CST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 313 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Used the NAM12/HRRR for the near term today through tonight. Then balanced the drier NAM/GFS solutions with the ECMWF (continues to produce precip southern 1/2) for Wednesday. Unseasonably warm to start early this morning area wide now that the warm front has moved entirely north of the CWFA. Front will move from west to east across the area today, and clear our eastern counties this evening. High PoPs for showers and a few storms today with fropa. PoPs end this evening, dry late tonight in the wake of the front. Dry weather Tuesday and Tuesday night with high pressure in control. Kept low chance PoPs across the area Wednesday/Wednesday evening. The NAM and GFS are fairly dry, but the ECMWF will not let go of its depiction of showers/isolated TSRA moving across the region, mainly southern 1/2 (SEMO and especially west KY). Will go with low chance PoPs south, slights north to account for the uncertainty. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Models show high pressure centered over north Texas at 00z Friday. The high will slide south of the PAH forecast area through 00z Saturday. This will give our region mostly clear skies Thursday into Friday, with near seasonal temperatures. The latest GFS is faster than the ECMWF and Canadian moving the high east. This leads to the GFS bringing precipitation into our region by late Friday night due to a warm front lifting northward, while the ECMWF and Canadian holds off until during the day Saturday. Consensus is to lean more toward the slower solutions, so kept Friday night dry, with rain quickly spreading from southwest to northeast across the region on Saturday. The associated low will be sliding from the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes region Saturday into Saturday night. This will drag a cold front across the area Saturday night. Widespread rain showers will continue along and ahead of the front Saturday night. Post frontal moisture will keep some lingering rain across the area on Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Saturday into Saturday night south of the warm front. Sunday temperatures are more in question with numerical guidance varying quite a bit, but high pressure behind the front will be building in from the west, and temperatures right now look to be fairly similar to Saturday's readings. && .AVIATION... Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Morning convection will affect portions of west KY, southern IL, and eventually southwest IN. Generally VFR cigs with MVFR cigs and vsbys expected with early on convection. For the rest of today, expect variable VFR/MVFR cigs and gusty south winds 10-20+ kts. Cold front will slowly move across the area today, reaching along a line from KOWB to KJBR by 00z. Good chance of convection today with frontal passage. Chances will decrease tonight in the wake of the front. Winds will switch around to the NW as the front moves through. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 354 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-271100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 354 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that resulted in minor flooding of streets and fields in Jonesboro.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 668240.