Damaging Wind in Idaho, June 9, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
201 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Upper short wave is
lifting across WA/OR and is triggering storms ahead of it.
Convection is slow to develop this afternoon over SE Idaho, but
convective initiation probabilities are increasing across the
Central Mountains as mid-level cap erodes. Strongest shear stays
in northern Idaho coincident with the SPC slight risk area.
Several models are suggesting overnight convection across the
Southeastern Highlands continuing through tomorrow morning
associated with a short wave lifting out of the Great Basin.
Upper trough offshore will deepen over the next couple of days,
but a dry, stable southwesterly flow will suppress most
convection. Expect somewhat stronger winds Thursday and Friday
as surface gradient increases. NAM MOS guidance puts us close to
lake wind advisory criteria tomorrow. Hinsberger

LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. A seasonably strong
upper trough will be approaching the region on Saturday, with broad
southwesterly flow in place preceding the trough. This will ensure
one more day of above-average temperatures for Sat. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Saturday due to
the enhanced lift associated with the trough. A couple of these
storms may be locally strong. The trough will pass overhead on
Sunday, sending a strong cold front across the region late Saturday
night into early Sunday, bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms along with an increase in winds and a significant drop
in temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to drop around 20 degrees
on Sunday when compared to Saturday. Drier conditions are expected
to take hold Monday. Another trough is expected to approach the Pac
NW coast Tue and Wed, forcing a transition back to SW flow across
our area, leading to a quick rebound in temperatures back to around
seasonal normals by mid-week. AD/Hinsberger

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected today with light terrain-driven
winds outside of convective activity. Convective-allowing models
generate a round of showers and thunderstorms over the Southern
Highlands this afternoon, passing through BYI late this afternoon.
This could lead to locally strong outflow winds, with a
consolidating outflow boundary proceeding up the Snake Plain this
evening. Confidence too low in evolution and timing to include in
TAFs ATTM, but will continue to monitor convective trends this aftn
and update as necessary. Cumulus field showing increased vigor acrs
the Central Mtns this afternoon, so an isolated shower or
thunderstorm not out of the question at KSUN either. Round of
showers possible between 06-12Z for Snake Plain sites, and have
included VCSH to account for this. Breezy winds develop by late
morning across the Snake Plain, with W-SW winds increasing to
15-25kts. AD/Hinsberger

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.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
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