Drought in Hawaii, September 6 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
831 PM HST MON SEP 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical trade wind weather is expected for the rest of the week,
with clouds and brief showers favoring windward areas, especially
during nights and mornings. Leeward areas will be mostly dry, except
for afternoon clouds and a few showers over the leeward slopes of
the Big Island. The moderate trade winds are expected ease off for
the upcoming weekend, and into early part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lester is history. A trade wind regime has now taken over the
islands that will persist into the upcoming weekend. Under this
pattern, showers coming in with the trades will favor the windward
and mountain areas, especially the nights and mornings. A potential
spoiler to this fine weather is an upper level low forecast over
or just east of Maui and the Big Island during the second half of
the week. It is unknown how much of an impact it will have on the
island weather at this time.

The trades are kept in place over the islands by a broad 1029 mb
surface high centered 1360 miles north-northeast of the islands
tonight. The high will drift slightly east through Friday of its
current position while strengthening slightly to 1032 mb on
Wednesday, and holding at this strength to Friday. The impact on
the islands is for more trades, perhaps slightly firmer by
Wednesday. A couple of fronts will be nudging the high eastward,
through the weekend, where the high will be further away from the
islands and a much relaxed pressure gradient over the islands.
This will result in light to moderate trades. Under this regime,
local daytime sea breezes comes into play leading to spotty
afternoon clouds over the leeward and interior areas of the
smaller islands. Afternoon clouds and scattered showers are
expected for the lee side of the Big Island, especially south of
the airport during the week. Lee areas of the smaller islands may
have a few sprinkles at best in the morning. Otherwise, they will
be dry during the week.

The depth of the marine layer, or the strength of the low level
inversion, is forecast to rise from 6k feet to 10k feet over the
smaller islands by Wednesday. and continue into the weekend. Over
the Big Island, the moisture is expected to cap at summit level,
then rise to 17k feet Thursday afternoon, can continue into the
weekend.

We are closely monitoring the showers in the vicinity of Kailua-Kona
town this hour. Also, it should be pointed out that the Molokai
NEXRAD is out of service due to apparent comms issues. Radar coverage
between north Big Island and the Kauai Channel is being affected.
Authorizes will be looking into the situation Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure northeast of the state will keep a moderate to
locally breezy trade wind flow in place through Tuesday, with
clouds and showers focused primarily over windward and mauka
areas. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in passing -SHRA will be possible in
windward locales. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
06Z Wednesday.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence over
and downwind of the mountains. AIRMET Sierra may be needed for
mountain obscuration in some windward areas later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier marine
zones around Maui and the Big Island, and will likely be required
for the majority of this week. For now, it has been extended through
Tuesday night. Decreasing winds late in the week will likely allow
the SCA to be dropped.

As per Lanai buoy, the south swell may have peaked a little while
ago at 2.6 ft and 18 seconds. A down trend is expected through
Tuesday. Wave watch model has another south swell expected to
start rolling in along our south facing shores Tuesday night and
peak at 3 feet 17 secs late Wednesday afternoon. With these values,
the surf will likely to be below the 8 feet criteria for a high surf
advisory for south facing shores. We will be monitoring this
closely. This swell will slowly ease down through Friday, and be
small during the upcoming weekend along the south shores.

The east facing shores will have moderate size surf for the week as
a result of the moderate trades. As the trades drops over the weekend,
so will the surf along the east facing sores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

Discussion/Marine...Lau
Aviation...Jelsema