Wildfire in Hawaii, June 16 to 17, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high far north of the area will keep trade winds blowing
through next week. Locally strong trades will ease by Sunday as
the high weakens. A ridge aloft will keep the atmosphere dry and
stable through the week, so rainfall will be lighter than it has
been. Showers may become more active next week as a trough aloft
makes the atmosphere more moist and less stable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1034 MB surface high 1050 miles north of Kauai near 37N 160W will
move southwest slowly and weaken slightly through Saturday. Locally
strong east northeast trade winds south of the high will slowly
weaken through Saturday. A ridge aloft will build north of the area
and keep the atmosphere dry and stable. The trade winds will carry
scattered showers over windward areas, and isolated showers will
reach leeward areas of the smaller islands, but rainfall will be
lighter than it has been. High clouds will pass over the islands
from the southwest and dim the sun at times, but these clouds will
not produce any rainfall.

By Sunday, the trade winds will decrease to moderate strength and
the atmosphere will become more moist and less stable as a trough
aloft digs toward the area from the northeast. Showers are likely to
become more active through the first half of next week.

&&

AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO will remain in effect for low level turbulence over
and immediately south through west of the mountains of all the
islands due to strong trade winds blowing across the mountains.
VFR will prevail, with isolated MVFR conditions at times, over
mainly windward areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory...SCA..remains in effect for most of the
coastal waters through early Friday morning as strong to near-gale
force trade winds persist. The area covered by the SCA will decrease
as the winds gradually weaken over the next couple of days, and it
may be possible to drop the SCA early next week.

A High Surf Sdvisory remains in effect for east facing shores
through this evening due to the elevated swell driven by the strong
trade winds. Surf along east facing shores may drop to just below
advisory level tonight as the winds ease slightly.

A series of southeast to southwest swells will produce small to
moderate surf along south facing shores. Only small surf is
expected along north and west facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 600 PM this evening for east facing shores
of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai.

Small Craft Advisory until 600 PM this evening for Kauai Windward
Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 600 AM Friday for the rest of the
Hawaiian waters except windward Big Island waters.

&&

Donaldson