High Surf in Hawaii, February 16 to 19, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE FEB 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE FROM A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG TO CARRY SOME SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AT TIMES. DRIER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BRISK TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE WHERE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST.
MOISTURE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BARELY REACHED OAHU OVERNIGHT AND
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. FURTHERMORE...SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED MORE MOISTURE JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND
THE STRONG TRADES WILL CARRY THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. EARLY
MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS SHOWED NO SURPRISES...DEPICTING A
RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO AROUND
10 THOUSAND FEET. THUS PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TODAY AT TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WINDWARD AREAS.

LITTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY PART OF
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BRISK TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REACH THE ISLANDS AT
TIMES. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME OF THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS STILL SHOW THE WINDS WILL EASE AT BIT BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH WEAKENS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR
MODERATE TURB SW OF THE MTN OF ALL ISLANDS AND FOR STG SFC WIND.
THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGMETS
FOR SEV TURB MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES AND SOME TAFS MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE LLWS.

A NE TO SW BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF A
FRONT IS AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE KAUAI CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AS
OF 16/1330Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR COND ON KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN
EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ON KAUAI DUE TO THIS CLOUD BAND. AIRMET SIERRA
MAY NEED EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OAHU LATER TODAY AND TO INCLUDE
MOLOKAI...LANAI AND MAUI TONIGHT AS THE SHOWER BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
SE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOREOVER...WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
GALE WARNING TODAY.

STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED ROUGH SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES...REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS...THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE BIG ISLAND.
A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

AVIATION...DONALDSON
REST...HUI