Georgia, 2016Wildfire in Georgia, October 16 to 31, 2016
October 16 to 31, 2016 · NWS FFC · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
Throughout the spring, summer and autumn, north Georgia saw an extended period of below normal rainfall. By late summer and early fall all of north Georgia was experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $8.5 million
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Throughout the spring, summer and autumn, north Georgia saw an extended period of below normal rainfall. By late summer and early fall all of north Georgia was experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought conditions. As summer vegetation began to die off and autumn leaves began falling from the trees, the continued extremely dry conditions led to very dangerous wildfire conditions. From early October through November, numerous wildfires erupted across north and central Georgia including 3 major wildfires covering multiple thousands of acres apiece in the north Georgia mountains. By early December, over $20 million dollars in federal funds had been spent fighting wildfires in the Chattahoochee National Forest and on surrounding federal and state lands.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 16, 2:32 AM EST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 2:32 AM EST, 2 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Medium range models remain in fairly good agreement through the
short term forecast period. Upper low over the forecast area this
morning weakens and drops south and east of the area through the
day today and into tonight with upper-level ridging building into
the region Monday. The surface ridge holds on over the region
through the period but becomes much less wedge-like during the day
today through the period as the center of the ridge drifts south
and east off the mid-atlantic/southeast coast. Models do not
generate any significant POPs today, although current radar trends
and model instability point toward isolated to scattered showers
possible, and even a slight chance of thunder, through much of the
day. Better chances appear to be south and west through the early
morning, shifting south and east during the day before ending
sometime this afternoon. Cloud cover looks to be fairly extensive
early, diminishing as well through the day today with mostly clear
most areas tonight and Monday. Temperatures will be at or above
normal today with noticeably above normal highs expected Monday.
Lows tonight will be near to slightly above normal.
20
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Long range models show good agreement through the period with a
dry forecast and warmer than normal temperatures on tap through
Wednesday under strong high pressure influence. Then rain chances
creep back into the forecast by Thursday as a cold front
approaches northwest Georgia Thursday afternoon... then sags into
central Georgia by Friday afternoon. Although instabilities are
weak to almost NIL... the driving upper short wave energy does
dive down across at least north Georgia... and this coupled with
some frontal forcing should support at least some isolated
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Thursday through
Friday. However... no severe storms are expected at this time. The
front exits the area Friday night... with a dry and much cooler
airmass filtering in over the area by Saturday morning.
Temperatures ahead of this front will remain well above normal and
we could approach near record highs Monday through Wednesday. See
the Climate Section below for further details. The cool down
behind the front will bring more seasonable numbers to the area by
the weekend.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016/
Mixture of mainly MVFR/VFR conditions through 14Z. Could see some
local IFR conditions at times...but extent and duration would not be
expected to be significant. Isolated drizzle and some showers
possible across mainly southern and western portions of the forecast
area through the morning, shifting to mainly the southeast corner by
midday into the afternoon. east to southeast winds 4-8kt through 16-
18Z, diminishing to 3-6kt by 22-00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium on ceilings/visibilities through mid to late morning and any
isolated showers reaching the airfield through this time frame as
well. High on remaining elements.
20
&&
.CLIMATE...
Under high pressure influence...daytime highs could approach near
record numbers Monday through Wednesday before a cold front
arrives at the end of the work week. The following are the record
numbers for this period of concern at the four main climate sites.
Records for 10-17
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 88 1920 51 2009 69 1989 34 1954
1927
KATL 85 2011 51 2009 70 1879 34 1978
KCSG 91 1916 52 2009 71 1928 34 1954
1915 1925
KMCN 89 1972 54 2009 71 1928 36 2001
1925 1954
Records for 10-18
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 87 1938 55 1966 68 1928 31 1943
KATL 86 1984 54 1966 68 2007 32 1948
1882
1881
KCSG 90 1984 54 1955 72 1928 36 1977
1915
KMCN 92 1897 58 1927 70 1980 33 2001
1928
Records for 10-19
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1926 53 1989 64 2006 33 2009
1984
1937
KATL 87 1938 50 1989 66 1993 35 1976
1948
KCSG 92 1915 52 1989 69 1917 35 1948
KMCN 89 1926 56 1989 67 1980 35 2015
1912 2009
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 80 58 83 59 / 20 5 5 5
Atlanta 80 61 83 63 / 20 5 5 5
Blairsville 78 55 80 53 / 20 10 5 5
Cartersville 80 60 84 60 / 20 5 5 5
Columbus 83 62 86 63 / 30 10 5 5
Gainesville 79 60 82 60 / 20 5 5 5
Macon 82 58 85 59 / 20 10 10 5
Rome 81 59 85 58 / 20 5 5 5
Peachtree City 81 59 84 58 / 20 5 5 5
Vidalia 80 61 84 62 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 3:30 AM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
430 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY...
WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... AN ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS... OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE
LINE TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
Wildfire, Fannin
- When
- October 16, 5:00 AM EST to October 31, 11:59 PM EST
- Where
- Fannin forecast zone
- Property damage
- $8.5 million
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 34.864, -84.320 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
In the early morning hours of October 16th, lightning ignited a wildfire deep in the heart of the Cohutta Wilderness in the Chattahoochee National Forest. The Rough Ridge wildfire spread through the very remote Cohutta Wilderness and surrounding portions of the Chattahoochee National Forest, eventually consuming 27,950 acres in Fannin, Gilmer and Murray Counties. Nearly $8.5 million federal dollars were expended fighting this wildfire before it was finally declared contained on November 30th.
Wildfire, Gilmer
- When
- October 16, 5:00 AM EST to October 31, 11:59 PM EST
- Where
- Gilmer forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 34.691, -84.456 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
In the early morning hours of October 16th, lightning ignited a wildfire deep in the heart of the Cohutta Wilderness in the Chattahoochee National Forest. The Rough Ridge wildfire spread through the very remote Cohutta Wilderness and surrounding portions of the Chattahoochee National Forest, eventually consuming 27,950 acres in Fannin, Gilmer and Murray Counties. Nearly $8.5 million federal dollars were expended fighting this wildfire before it was finally declared contained on November 30th.
Wildfire, Murray
- When
- October 16, 5:00 AM EST to October 31, 11:59 PM EST
- Where
- Murray forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 34.788, -84.748 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
In the early morning hours of October 16th, lightning ignited a wildfire deep in the heart of the Cohutta Wilderness in the Chattahoochee National Forest. The Rough Ridge wildfire spread through the very remote Cohutta Wilderness and surrounding portions of the Chattahoochee National Forest, eventually consuming 27,950 acres in Fannin, Gilmer and Murray Counties. Nearly $8.5 million federal dollars were expended fighting this wildfire before it was finally declared contained on November 30th.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Rip Current in Texas, October 16, 20161 death · 1 event
- High Wind in Wyoming, October 16 to 17, 201664 kt wind · 35 events
- Winter Storm and High Wind in Wyoming, October 16 to 17, 2016$15,000 · 70 kt wind · 8 events
- High Wind in California, October 16, 2016$20,000 · 57 kt wind · 1 event
- High Wind in Wyoming, October 16, 201674 kt wind · 3 events
- High Wind in California, October 16 to 17, 201670 kt wind · 3 events
- High Wind in Nevada, October 16 to 17, 2016$5,000 · 56 kt wind · 2 events
- High Wind in Utah, October 16 to 17, 201661 kt wind · 1 event
- Waterspout in Gulf of Mexico, October 16, 20161 event
- Coastal Flood in Florida, October 16, 20161 event
- Marine Thunderstorm Wind in Eastern Pacific Coastal Waters, October 16, 20161 event
- Wildfire in Hawaii, October 16 to 17, 20161 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662966, 662967, 662968.