The drought conditions that began in late winter of 2016, and continued through the year resulted in very dry vegetation across the north Georgia mountains by mid-autumn. These conditions were exacerbated by an unusually warm summer and fall, when temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees above normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
The drought conditions that began in late winter of 2016, and continued through the year resulted in very dry vegetation across the north Georgia mountains by mid-autumn. These conditions were exacerbated by an unusually warm summer and fall, when temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees above normal. In these conditions, a large wildfire ignited and spread during early November, and was not completely contained until a cold front brought much-needed rain to the area at the end of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 9:34 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
934 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our region from the northwest tonight with
gusty wind, especially for the mountains on Wednesday. Expect high
pressure to build in Thursday. A stronger dry cold front will sweep
across the region during on Friday, bringing seasonable to below
normal temperatures to the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST Tuesday: Latest radar still looking paltry with
precip echoes to our west. In fact, even precip along the front
south of the OH Valley is beginning to break up. Have backed off on
precip onset a few hours over the mountains. Given this and the
latest mesoscale guidance, precip chances still not looking great
for most of the forecast area. Therefore, only minor changes needed
mainly for current conditions.
Otherwise...Surface high pressure remains in control of the area
this afternoon as a sharp positively-tilted trough and attendant
surface cold front approach the Appalachians. However, the dynamics
are lacking with the portion of the front heading our way and all of
the guidance pretty much has the entire line of precipitation
breaking apart as it hits the mountains. Of the operational
guidance, the ECMWF has the low a little farther south but even less
precipitation than the GFS. CAMs also leave a lot to be desired. So
what we are looking at is this meager line/area of precipitation
along and perhaps just slightly trailing the front, with some rain
reaching the NC/TN state line around midnight. Pops are pretty much
limited to the mountains and northern tier of the Piedmont, and
except for some limited northwest flow showers at the highest
elevations, just about all the precip will be gone by sunrise. If
they're lucky, the mountains *might* get 1/4". Our consolation prize
is that we get a continued increase in clouds through the period
(yippee).
Overnight low temperatures will certainly be on the warm side with
the increasing cloud cover (so no frost expected tonight), with a
non-diurnal trend expected on Wednesday behind the front. We can
expect highs sometime around midday with a dropping trend
thereafter. Winds will pick up to between 10-15mph by Wednesday
afternoon across most of the area, with gusts 20-25mph or so (of
course sustained and gusts will be higher in the mountains, possibly
up to 35-40mph).
Otherwise, the concern through the near term will be the smoke
from the wildfires. As the front approaches, winds will shift out of
the west and northwest and waft the smoke back into NC, eventually
spreading across the Piedmont and into Upstate SC early Wednesday.
This may create visibility problems that will be hard to forecast,
combined with whatever fog manages to develop from the increased low-
level moisture. Air Quality Alert remains in effect and will
probably need to consider reissuing the SPS, possibly expanding it
farther east as we get a better handle on the plumes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Tuesday...A vigorous H5 short wave trough will exit
off the East Coast Wednesday night, followed by short wave ridging
within continued NW flow on Thursday. At the surface, dry high
pressure will build in quickly from the west. Wednesday night will
see some frosty temps in the high terrain, but winds may remain too
elevated for widespread frost. In any case, a frost advisory may be
issued for portions of the NC mountains. Then on Thursday, temps
will rebound, as CAA subsides and skies become sunny.
Thursday night and Friday, another trough will dive out of the NW,
and carve a strongly positively tilted long wave trough across the
NE to the Midwest. A dry surface cold front will accompany the upper
trough, and drop into the Ohio Valley on Friday. The models seem to
show the front at 850 mb will be out ahead of the surface front,
with NWLY flow and CAA ramping up during the day on Friday, while
the surface front doesn't cross the mountains until after 00z
Saturday. This will result in an early day max temp in the NC
mountains, then dropping temps in the afternoon, while the piedmont
should arm to about 6-8 degrees above normal with some help from
downslope warming. Afternoon RH values will be in the 20s to 30s
both Thursday and Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday: The medium range fcst period kicks off on
Friday evening with little change from the previous fcst. As such,
guidance continues to favor passage of a back door cold front into
the overnight hours yielding impressive caa ahead of an approaching
dry/cold Canadian high pressure. Said high pressure will center
itself across the fcst area on Sunday morning, which combined with
very dry profiles to yield clear skies as well as calm winds, should
set the stage for good radiational cooling and thus frost/freeze
conditions. Specifically, am expecting freeze conditions across
much if not all of the NC Mtns and Piedmont, with frost and isolated
outlying freeze possible across much of the SC Upstate along/east of
I26.
Moving along, the pattern on Sunday will remain dry as the region
lies beneath deep layer subsidence thanks to shortwave H5 riding,
however will modify into Monday as a region of height falls
approaches out of the central/southern Plains. The op guidance is
in good agreement with regards to the pattern, however the details
are still yet to be determined as the GFS has less gulf inflow ahead
of the primary H5 shortwave leading to a drier atm, while the 12z
ECMWF continues to favor better moisture advection and thus a
slightly wetter pattern. That said, neither source is notably wet
across the fcst area on Monday thus the fcst will remain dry. Late
in the period a clipper type disturbance ejects eastward across the
upper Midwest, possible digging into the Ohio valley on Tuesday per
the ECMWF, therefore will hedge with low end pops.
Summarizing temperatures through the period, expecting near/below
normal levels on Saturday morning as the caa regime initiates,
cooling further to nearly one/two categories below normal on Sunday
morning. Beyond that, temperatures are fcst to gradually moderate
back to near normal towards midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR through the period, with the exception of
occasionally reduced vsby at KAVL for smoke. Light SW winds this
evening become W to NW overnight as a cold front approaches.
Mid-level cloudiness will increase overnight with some low VFR
around daybreak. Low VFR cigs should be limited to KAVL and possibly
KHKY. Behind the front, winds will pick up out of the NW with gusts
developing around noon and continuing through the day. No -SHRA/-RA
expected at any of the TAFs.
Outlook: Drying can be expected behind the front through the end of
the work week, while an even drier air mass is expected to settle
over the area during the weekend in the wake of a stronger (but dry)
cold front.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 87% High 100% High 93% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will cross the area late tonight, bringing generally
small chances of measurable rain (ranging from 40-50% near the TN
border, to 20% across the NC foothills, to less than 20% across the
remainder of the area). Locations that do receive rain are expected
to see a tenth of an inch or less. Surface winds may become gusty out
of the NW, esp across high elevations and NW/SE-oriented valleys by
sunrise Wed.
Gusty northwest winds will increase in the wake of a cold front on
Wed. Speeds are forecast to range between 10 to 15 mph with regular
gusts between 25 to 30 mph, ridgetops could see gusts around 45 mph.
RH values may remain above 60 percent across the upslope areas of
the Appalachians, falling to below 40 percent across the upstate of
SC and NE GA. Frontal showers may yield only 0.05 to 0.10 across the
TN border counties and no measurable rain across the foothills and
Piedmont. A dry air mass will build over the region through the rest
of the week. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 20s Thursday and
Friday (and possibly upper teens in the Upstate on Friday). Breezy
conditions may accompany the low RH Friday afternoon, but should
remain below Red Flag conditions. Over the weekend, afternoon RH
values will dip into the 30s Saturday and back into the 20s on
Sunday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...ARKHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 322 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-092030- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- 322 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION...A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019- 092030- RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND- LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD- POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 322 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ018-026-028-029-092030- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT- 322 PM EST TUE NOV 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. ARK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rock Mountain Fire burned more than 11,000 acres in the extreme northwest part of Rabun County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 667194.