Drought in Georgia, November 29 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
905 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Potent shortwave ejecting from Central U.S. is generating showers
and thunderstorms (some strong) from northeast Alabama through
eastern Louisiana. The shortwave is quickly lifting to the
northeast this evening, taking the best forcing with it. However,
will still likely see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
reach the far western portion of the forecast area by sunrise.
Ahead of this activity, could see a few isolated showers in the
strong southerly flow. Overall, forecast is in good shape with
only minor tweaks expected this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [622 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The axis of a broad positively tilted upper trough will extend
southwestward from a closed low over the Northern Plains through the
Four Corner's region with deep S/SW flow extending across the
northern GOMEX to New England early Tuesday. At the surface, the
cold front over or just northwest of our CWA is forecast to stall
and possibly push NWWD on Tuesday in the strong southerly flow.
Convection along and ahead of the front will be weakening and
diminishing in coverage. PoPs will be tapered likely (60%) NW to
slight chance (20%) SE. For Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
the upper low will move eastward to the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, a shortwave over the Desert Southwest is forecast to
translate eastward across the Gulf Coast states before lifting
NEWD into New England. This will result in re-energizing the
frontal boundary and sending it through our CWA
Wednesday/Wednesday night. It is also when the entire forecast
area will see the best chance for rain in over two months with
rainfall amounts up to 1.5" possible in some locations. For
information on expected rainfall totals, see the hydrology
discussion below.

Our Alabama and Florida Panhandle counties remain east of the
Marginal risk area for severe weather outlined by the SPC through
Tuesday night. However, Wednesday as the front strengthens once
again and moves back into the Tri-State region, the potential for
severe weather may be a bit better. SPC has outlooked our entire
CWA with a Marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday. The
main severe threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with an
isolated tornado also possible.

Highs both days will be well above seasonal levels ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s
Tuesday night and then range from the upper 40s northwest to mid 60s
far southeast zones Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The cold front will push east of the region Thursday morning with
the upper level flow becoming nearly zonal Friday through the end
of the period. A weak southern stream shortwave will interact
with the tail-end of the front over the western Gulf early in the
weekend and could bring rain back to the local area as early as
Saturday with a better chance on Sunday. High and low temperatures
will return to near seasonal levels.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected this period from VFR
currently to mostly MVFR overnight to temporary IFR at a few
locations around dawn. Surface system upstream with associated
showers and storms will continue to move eastward through the
night. Some short term models depict rainfall moving through SE AL
and SW GA tomorrow morning before mostly dissipating by early
afternoon. Strong southeast to south winds in the low levels will
continue ahead of this system which should keep fog from forming;
rather, lower cigs will be the main issue beginning this evening.
Where the winds are a little weaker, VLD and TLH, some
intermittent IFR cigs are possible closer to dawn.

.MARINE...

Advisory level winds and seas should continue into Tuesday
morning then drop to cautionary levels through Tuesday night
before elevating once again to advisory levels ahead of a strong
cold front Wednesday. Flow will turn northerly behind the front on
Thursday, then gradually northeast to east Friday into the
weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture will remain in place as southerly flow continues ahead of a
cold front slated for passage late Wednesday. Low level winds will
remain moderate to strong so high dispersions are anticipated
through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
anticipated for the next few days with the best chances across
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

.HYDROLOGY...

Over the next 3 to 4 days, widespread average rainfall amounts
will range from 1-1.5" along and northwest of a line from Albany
through Panama City, and between 0.5-0.75" southeast of the line.
With the ongoing drought and low river levels, these amounts will
bring some relief but not threaten us with any flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  81  66  81  57 /  20  20  10  50  50
Panama City   69  76  68  77  55 /  20  30  20  60  50
Dothan        64  76  66  78  47 /  40  60  30  80  40
Albany        63  79  63  80  50 /  20  40  20  60  50
Valdosta      62  82  64  81  58 /  10  20  10  20  50
Cross City    63  82  63  81  63 /  10  10  10  20  40
Apalachicola  68  77  68  79  59 /  20  20  10  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan