Drought in Georgia, November 1 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1042 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front across our area will move north tonight
and Tuesday as it dissipates. Much above normal temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger cold front will cross
our region from the northwest Thursday night and Friday bringing
temperatures that will be closer to seasonal normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1035 PM: The 11u-3.9U satellite product shows a few patches of
mid clouds across the I-40 corridor as thick cirrus spreads across
western NC and the upper Savannah River Valley. I will update the
forecast to increase sky cover. Otherwise, it appears that only
minor tweaks to wind and temps are needed over the next several
hours.

As of 825 PM: Latest IR satellite loop shows impressive waves of
cirrus sweeping across the western Carolinas. High clouds should
continue to stream across the forecast area overnight. IR satellite
and sfc observations indicated a large band of stratus across
eastern NC. NAM12 indicates that stratus is expected to shift west
along the nose of the ridging sfc high pressure during the pre dawn
hours. Forecast soundings indicate that low stratus will
likely develop across the western Carolinas around dawn remaining
into mid to late morning. Winds are forecast to remain light from
the ESE.

As of 620 PM: I will issue a quick update to remove PoPs from the
mtn zones. In addition, the hourly temps/sky forecast grids with the
latest observations.

As of 2pm EDT Monday: East-West front that was across North Carolina
has now moved into South Carolina with some very light easterly to
northeasterly flow behind it. Some light showers are possible behind
the front over the mountains of North Carolina tonight or early
tomorrow morning.  CAMs are consistent in showing some light
activity, though precipitation amounts will only be slightly above a
trace, if that.  Front lies along the southern edge of the
1000-500mb thickness gradient with some northeasterly flow around a
broad surface high over the eastern CONUS.  Do to weak gradient in
the surface pressure, winds will be light northeasterly to easterly
through Monday.  As surface high moves eastward, pattern becomes
more wedge-like with northeasterly flow and clouds dropping highs on
Tuesday about 8 degrees from the nearly 20 degrees above normal
Monday highs.  Despite generally dry conditions, dewpoints are
sufficiently high that some patchy fog is expected Tuesday morning,
especially in areas of clear skies and nearly calm winds, though
latest model guidance has reduced the area of anticipated fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...the mid- to late-part of the week still looks
fairly dynamic. An upper ridge will continue to build over the
Southeast Tuesday night, but this will be short-lived as by the end
of the day on Wednesday, a short wave in the nrn stream beginning to
dig over the nrn Plains/upper MS River valley will begin to force
some changes. The wave is expected to amplify as it moves east on
Wednesday night, suppressing the ridge and breaking down the surface
high across the Southeast/Carolinas. The trof should approach from
the west on Thursday afternoon and then the trof axis is expected to
cross the fcst area Thursday night. Upper forcing looks minimal.
Mid-level forcing looks decent enough with some dpva ahead of the
wave. The GFS also shows some fairly decent low level convergence
along the surface cold front. The problem, once again, is the
failure of Gulf moisture to be injected into the system before it
gets here. An old fcst rule-of-thumb says when in a drought, fcst
dry weather, and at this point I see no compelling reason to
increase precip chances. Until/unless we see some moisture flux, the
GFS appears to be overdone with its extent/amt of precip along the
front. The new ECMWF looks like it has a better handle on what will
probably happen. Thus, I would suggest that anyone who is looking
for rain should manage their expectations. The best chance...perhaps
on the order of 30 pct, should be over the NC mtns closer to the TN
border, and then east across the I-40 corridor and perhaps down over
the wrn Piedmont of NC. Expect most of northeast GA and Upstate SC
to remain dry. The frontal passage should be noticeable and should
bring a quick end to chances before sunrise on Friday. Until then,
temps will continue to run close to ten degrees above normal. At
least the passage of the trof/cold front will knock temps back down
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Monday...it still looks like an upper pattern change
will be complete by Friday, with a high-amplitude ridge to our west
and trof axis to our east. The pattern will evolve very slowly
through the weekend, supporting sfc high pressure that will ridge
down from the north and keep temperatures much closer to normal into
Monday. On the one hand, this should bring spectacular autumn
weather to the region for the weekend. On the other hand, it will
continue to make the drought worse. The only other problem might be
some of the low temperatures, which might be cool enough to cause a
frost concern most nights.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Latest IR satellite loop shows impressive
waves of cirrus sweeping across the western Carolinas. High clouds
should continue to stream across the forecast area overnight. IR
satellite and sfc observations indicated a large band of stratus
across eastern NC. NAM12 indicates that stratus is expected to shift
west along the nose of the ridging sfc high pressure during the pre
dawn hours. Forecast soundings indicate that restrictive stratus
will likely develop across the western Carolinas around dawn
remaining into mid to late morning. Sky cover should return to VFR
by mid day. Winds are forecast to remain light from the ESE.

Outlook: High pressure remains over the area Wednesday with a cold
front moving through Thursday night. High pressure returns for
Friday.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High  98%     High  84%     High  82%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   66%     Med   78%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   62%     Med   77%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High  83%     High  88%     Med   65%
KGMU       High 100%     High  80%     Med   78%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   72%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1021 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.