An anomalous upper level pattern developed across the country with a large upper level trough remaining nearly stationary west of the area for several days at the end of December. Continuous southwest flow brought unseasonably warm temperatures and high moisture content across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
An anomalous upper level pattern developed across the country with a large upper level trough remaining nearly stationary west of the area for several days at the end of December. Continuous southwest flow brought unseasonably warm temperatures and high moisture content across the area. Excessive rainfall amounts occurred during the last week of December with amounts in excess of 15 inches falling across the upper portions of the river basins. This resulted in significant river flooding downstream across the Apalachicola basin in northwest Florida in early January with some structures affected.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 7:52 PM CST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 852 PM EST THU DEC 31 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Tropical southwesterly flow continues to pump anomalous moisture into the Southeast this evening. At the surface, the persistent stationary front from the past few days has finally made some forward progression as a cold front. A 00z subjective analysis places the front northeast to southwest from Savannah, through Valdosta, to just east of Apalachicola. Most of the rainfall at this hour was behind the surface front, being forced aloft by isentropic ascent in the 305-310K window. Rain rates are generally between .25-.5" per hour, but some embedded areas of about 1" per hour were noted as well. Expect little east/west movement with this band of rain, but instead will gradually diminish from southwest to northeast over the next several hours. Total rainfall amounts overnight will likely range from 1.5" along the core of the rain band, to about 0.5" on the fringes. Elsewhere, scattered light showers will be possible along the surface front. Expect cooler and drier air to filter in under the ongoing rain and behind the surface front through the night. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend of Florida to the upper 40s across southeast Alabama. Some patchy fog will remain possible ahead of the front across the eastern Big Bend. && .Aviation... [Through 00Z Saturday]... IFR/LIFR cloud deck will gradually move southeast through the night, improving through MVFR to VFR. TLH and VLD should be the only terminals left under ceiling restrictions around sunrise, with all terminals eventually becoming VFR later in the afternoon. && .Prev Discussion [402 PM EST]... .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Although the cold front will be to our south, the mid to upper level flow will continue from the WSW through Friday before becoming zonal by Saturday. With deep layer moisture in place along with weak isentropic lift, PoPs will remain in the forecast gradually tapering down from north to south through Friday night. QPF amounts will be light. A much drier air filters in on Saturday with the deep moisture temporarily getting shunted to the south. The biggest change that we will see to start the new year will be an end of our record breaking temperatures. While the temperatures will be cool by comparison, they will actually be close to seasonal levels. Highs will only be in the 50s for all but the Big Bend zones (lower to mid 60s) on Friday. Then mid to upper 50s all zones except low to mid 60s SE Big Bend on Saturday. Lows will mostly be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... On Sunday, the northern fringe of the deep layer moisture lifts north mostly across our Florida zones as a significant shortwave and weak surface low translates west to east across the Gulf. This brings rain chances back to most of the CWA. A much drier airmass filters in behind the exiting shortwave early next week. Rain chances may return by midweek as both the GFS and latest ECMWF show another weak low developing in the far eastern Gulf. Min and max temps will remain near seasonal levels. .Marine... Winds and seas will begin to increase from west to east tonight and Friday as a strong high pressure system builds across the southeast this weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds are likely through much of next week. .Fire Weather... No fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... Most of the rain over the past 24 hours was confined to the western third of our forecast area (i.e. the FL Panhandle and southeast AL), where rain amounts averaged 0.50 to 3 inches. We expect an additional 1 to 2 inches across much of our region through Friday, though most of this will occur today. This will of course keep several of the rivers across southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA swollen, with many forecast points in flood. The good news for this region is that after the rain tapers off Friday night, an extended period of no/low QPF is expected. Meanwhile, the north FL and south central GA river basins will likely not get enough rain to cause significant rises through next week. For more detailed information, please visit: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 58 63 42 59 41 / 90 60 30 10 20 Panama City 56 59 42 58 42 / 90 70 30 10 20 Dothan 48 52 38 55 37 / 90 40 20 0 10 Albany 53 55 39 57 37 / 90 40 20 0 10 Valdosta 58 61 43 59 42 / 90 60 30 10 20 Cross City 67 67 49 64 42 / 70 50 40 10 30 Apalachicola 60 63 48 61 44 / 90 60 40 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding from the Apalachicola river surrounded numerous structures in the Howard Creek area and flooded several roads. Water was up to 2 feet deep in parts of the community. Damage cost was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 613489.