In November, rainfall throughout much of northern Connecticut was below normal. This ranged from around an inch below normal in the Connecticut River Valley to over two inches below normal in parts of Tolland County.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.
In November, rainfall throughout much of northern Connecticut was below normal. This ranged from around an inch below normal in the Connecticut River Valley to over two inches below normal in parts of Tolland County.
The Connecticut Department of Public Health continued a Drought Watch for Hartford and Tolland Counties in Northern Connecticut and a Drought Advisory for Windham County. Voluntary water conservation and adherence to any local water restrictions were encouraged.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 9:12 PM EST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1012 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Large high pressure builds in from the west tonight and Tuesday resulting in dry but cool weather. Turning milder Wednesday and Thursday but low pressure and its attending cold front will bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms Thu/Thu evening. Behind the front, cooler and blustery weather follows Fri and possibly into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... No major changes to the forecast this evening. High pressure remains in control. North winds and arrival of colder air resulting in some ocean-effect clouds across the outer Cape, and perhaps Nantucket at times. Previous forecast handled this pretty well. Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends. Previous discussion... Large high pressure builds in from the west tonight. This will result in mainly clear skies/light winds and an ideal night for radiational cooling. Temperatures will quickly drop after sunset given the relatively dry airmass in place. By daybreak Tuesday morning, temps will have bottomed out in the 20s in many locations. Even the urban heat islands of downtown Boston/Providence should see low temps in the middle to upper 30s. The mild spots will probably end up across portions of the Cape/Nantucket, where NNW flow will continue to generate a fair amount of ocean effect cloudiness. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday... High pressure in control will result in a mostly sunny day with light winds. Mid level temps warm significantly as upper level trough lifts northeast of our region, but weak mixing/lowering sun angle will delay this some at the surface. Nonetheless, afternoon high temps should still reach into the middle 50s in many locations. Tuesday night... High pressure moves east of the region allowing low level moisture to begin its return into southern New England. This may result in some low clouds/fog patches developing late Tue night, but areal extent/timing of this possibility remains uncertain. Low temps will be much milder than tonight, with most locales bottoming out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Mild Wed/Thu with highs possibly 70+ Thu coastal plain * Showers likely and possible T-storms, esp Thu aftn/evening * Trend toward cooler and blustery weather Fri * Low confidence forecast next weekend Overview... SE CONUS subtropical ridge briefly builds north along east coast midweek before amplifying northern stream trof moves into New Eng later Thu/Fri. Ahead of the trof, a period of mild temps is likely Wed and Thu. However, the robust trof and attending cold front will bring a period of showers and possible t-storms Thu into Thu evening. A trend toward cooler weather will follow but models begin to diverge on how they handle new northern stream energy dropping into the long wave trof next weekend into early next week. The 00z deterministic ECMWF which was most aggressive in developing a cutoff low south of New Eng has completely backed off that solution in its 12z run and has a progressive shortwave rotating through late in the weekend followed by upper ridging moving into New Eng early next week. GFS shows the trof reloading across New Eng by late weekend into early next week. Low predictability this far out so a low confidence forecast although reality probably lies somewhere in between. Will follow WPC guidance which suggest colder temps and offshore low pres possibly bringing unsettled conditions to SE New Eng. Details... Wednesday into Wednesday night... High pres south of New Eng with milder air advecting into New Eng as 925 mb temps reach 14C. RH cross sections suggest some low clouds may linger through the morning before some afternoon sunshine which may limit heating somewhat but temps should soar well into the 60s. Mainly dry weather through Wed night with just a low risk of a few showers spilling into northern MA late Wed night as frontal wave moves east from the Gt Lakes but bulk of shower activity will remain to the north. Areas of low clouds and fog may redevelop Wed night. Thursday into Thursday night... Model consensus has frontal wave moving across central New Eng with attending cold front dropping south across the region Thu afternoon/evening. Strongest and most persistent forcing for ascent and heavier showers will be along and north of the low track which keeps it in northern New Eng. However, deep layer moisture, modest forcing and marginal elevated instability suggests numerous showers developing with isold t-storms possible. There are still some timing differences but showers likely to be focused in the interior during Thu, especially afternoon with showers shifting to the coastal plain late Thu and especially Thu evening. With later arrival of showers in the coastal plain and the possibility of some sunshine, temps could reach 70+ in this region with cooler temps across northern MA where more clouds and earlier arrival of showers. Temps falling sharply behind the front late Thu/Thu evening from north to south. Pre-frontal SW winds may gust to 20-25 mph, then gusty post- frontal NW winds developing Thu night in cold advection pattern. Friday... Cold front well offshore with trof axis moving to the east and high pres building in will yield sunshine, much cooler temps and gusty NW winds. Saturday through Monday... Low confidence forecast due to significant model spread in the handling of upstream northern stream energy. Sensible weather and temps will depend on the degree of amplification of the trof and where it sets up. For now, we leaned toward WPC guidance but future forecast changes are likely. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...High confidence in VFR conditions. The exception will be across the Cape/Nantucket where a scattered to broken deck of marginal MVFR-VFR ocean-effect clouds will continue to affect this region. Tuesday...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions. Any left over ocean effect clouds across the Cape/Nantucket diminish Tue morning. Tuesday night...High confidence during the evening, but lower confidence late. VFR for most of the evening. Some MVFR to perhaps even localized IFR conditions may develop late Tue night in some low clouds/fog patches. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Patchy MVFR/IFR cigs in the morning, then improving conditions. Stratus and patchy fog may redevelop Wed night. Thursday...Moderate confidence. Conditions lowering of MVFR/IFR as numerous showers develop across the interior during Thu with showers shifting to the coast late Thu and especially Thu evening. Isold thunder possible. Conditions gradually improving to VFR later Thu night. Gusty pre-frontal SW winds shifting to NW Thu evening and continued gusty. Friday into Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Gusty NW winds Fri. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...Large high pressure slowly builds in from the west tonight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds the rest of tonight. Tuesday and Tuesday night...High pressure in control will keep winds and seas well below small craft advisory thresholds. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday...High confidence. Generally SW winds with gusts to 20 kt. Seas below SCA. Thursday...Moderate confidence. Pre-frontal SW winds may gust up to 25 kt nearshore waters Thu afternoon. Winds shifting to NW Thu evening with gusts to 30 kt developing. Numerous showers expected, especially late Thu into Thu evening along with isolated T-storms possible. Friday...Moderate confidence. NW gusts to 25-30 kt expected. Saturday...Moderate confidence. Westerly winds below SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...KJC/Frank NEAR TERM...Belk/KJC/Frank SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...Belk/KJC/Frank MARINE...Belk/KJC/Frank
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 408 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-012015- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI- WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- 408 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AND RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-012015- BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND- BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET- COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND- 408 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
At the beginning of November, the U.S. Drought Monitor had Hartford County under Severe Drought (D2) conditions. Then the U.S. Drought Monitor expanded the Extreme Drought (D3) designation into Hartford County on November 15th.
At the start of November, the U.S. Drought Monitor continued the Severe Drought (D2) designation in western Tolland County, with Moderate Drought (D1) to the east. By the end of November, most of Tolland County was encompassed in Severe Drought (D2), with Extreme Drought (D3) in the far northwest portion of the county.
At the beginning of November, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated all of Windham County was under Moderate Drought (D1) conditions. However, during November 29 to 30, the western third of the county was under Severe Drought (D2) conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Connecticut in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Connecticut, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 665408, 665411, 666223.