California, 2016

Wildfire in California, September 1 to 15, 2016

September 1 to 15, 2016 · NWS LOX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

In early September, both the Chimney Fire (in San Luis Obispo county) and the Rey Fire (in Santa Barbara county) were finally contained. In all, the Chimney Fire scorched 46,344 acres and the Rey Fire scorched 33, 606 acres.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LOX wrote it up.

In early September, both the Chimney Fire (in San Luis Obispo county) and the Rey Fire (in Santa Barbara county) were finally contained. In all, the Chimney Fire scorched 46,344 acres and the Rey Fire scorched 33, 606 acres.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 7:20 PM PST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 7:20 PM PST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A low pressure system will influence the weather from Thursday to the
middle of next week. The temperatures will remain below normal and
the onshore flow will increase and spread the overnight marine layer
clouds inland. The low pressure system should weaken by next Thursday
for a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SAT)

Slightly cooler temperatures for most areas today, but still had
a few triple digit readings across warmest interior locations.
The main short term weather concern this evening will continue
to be the gusty Sundowner winds this evening across the western
portions of the SBA south coast and Santa Ynez Range. Tonight's
wind event is slightly weaker and more localized than last night.
As of 8 pm, Santa Barbara-Santa Maria gradient currently at -4.0
mb with Refugio Hills reporting a peak wind gust of 42 mph and
San Marcos Pass at 31 mph. Another weak sundowner wind event is
expected on Thursday evening, with gusts generally in the 25 to 35
mph range for the same areas.

Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds and fog filling in
across the Central Coast and spinning upward from the Orange/San
Diego County coastal areas. A weak eddy circulation combined with
onshore pressure trends should enable low clouds and fog to
fill in across portions of the LA/Ventura county coast. 00z
Vandenberg sounding showing marine layer depth at 1300 feet while
ACARS showing a depth around 900 feet across the LA Basin.

While upper level trough will bring gradual cooling across the
district through the weekend, there will continue to be elevated
fire danger across interior sections due to the increased onshore
winds and continued dry conditions. Please see fire section below
for more details.

*** From previous discussion ***

Cooling will continue through this weekend as the upper trough
persists over much of the west coast. Onshore flow will also
increase each day peaking on Saturday afternoon with the NAM-WRF
indicating LAX-DAG surface gradient to be around +8MB. Although
the NAM has been overdoing the gradients, gusty sw winds are
likely to increase across the Antelope Valley and adjacent
foothills Fri-Sat. Local gusts to 45 mph are expected around the
Lake Palmdale area and nearby foothills. The stronger winds and
low relative humidities in this area will bring some elevated
critical fire concerns. Expect night through morning low clouds to
reach most coastal valleys by Friday morning and possibly into
the Santa Clarita Valley by early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Both the GFS and EC continue to be in good agreement with the
upper trough persisting over the region through early next week.
The trough actually deepens further over the weekend allowing the
marine layer to deepen and should bring low clouds to all valleys
for Sunday and Monday. High temps will continue do lower each day
through sunday with highs only reaching the lower to mid 80s for
most valley locations while the Antelope Valley peaks to the upper
80s to around 90 this weekend. Coastal areas will remain mild. There
will be a cooling difference between 10 and 15 degrees from highs
today compared to this weekend for inland areas.

There will continue to be some troughiness over the area Monday
and Tuesday with continued night through morning low clouds
across coast and coastal valleys. Heights and thickness lvls
will rise a bit both days. Expect a modest increase for high
temps...especially inland. There will be a degree or two of
warming across areas away from the coasts each day through
Tuesday, with a more substantial warm up on Wednesday. Still, max
temps will be a few degrees blo normal. By Wednesday, an upper
lvl ridge will begin to undercut the trough and build in from the
south pushing the upper trough axis to the east and north of the
forecast area. More substantial warming expected on Wednesday with
highs back to normal for this time of year. There will continue to
be some night through morning low clouds across coastal areas
Monday and could affect some coastal valleys Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...31/2320Z.

AT 2315Z, the marine layer depth at KLAX was 900 feet. The top of
the inversion was near 2900 feet with a temperature of 28C.

Weak upper level trough and slightly stronger onshore flow is
expected to bring somewhat greater coverage of low clouds and fog
to the LA/Ventura county coast and Central Coast later tonight
into Thursday morning. Expecting mostly IFR cigs for coastal
areas where low clouds develop.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00z TAF. There is a 30 percent
chance of the marine clouds arriving plus or minus two or more
hours from the forecasted time.

KBUR...Good confidence in the 00z TAF with VFR conditions through
the period. There is a 20 percent chance of the marine clouds
sneaking into the airfield Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...31/800 PM...

Rather high confidence that gale force winds will continue across
the outer waters through at least late tonight and possibly
through Thu night. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory level winds
can be expected at least through the end of the week.

For the inner waters, generally high confidence in winds remaining
below Small Craft Advisory levels into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

31/800 PM...

Slightly weaker and more localized sundowner winds occurring this
evening across the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent Santa
Ynez mountains. The winds will mostly be focused from Gaviota to
west of Goleta, As of 8 pm, the SBA- SMX gradient at -4.0 mb
generating gusts up to 40 mph at Refugio Hills and 31 mph at San
Marcos Pass. The air mass is not nearly as warm or dry as last
night, with humidities generally 30 to 50 percent. Another weak
sundowner is possible Thursday night, with gusts generally in the
25 to 35 mph range for the western portions of the South Coast and
foothills. Humidities are expected to remain in the 20 to 40
percent range on Thursday evening.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist through
this weekend across interior areas due to continued dry conditions
and increasing onshore winds as a trough of low pressure deepens
over the West Coast. The strongest onshore winds will be focused
across the mountains and Antelope Valley, where gusts between 25
and 40 mph will be common in the afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible in the foothills
of the Antelope Valley. These gusty onshore winds combined with
humidities in the teens and single digits could bring brief
critical fire weather conditions to the mountains and Antelope
Valley each afternoon and evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday For zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Gomberg/CK
FIRE...Gomberg/Munroe
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 31, 8:28 AM PST, 15 hours 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
928 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-011300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
928 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
AMODERATE SUNDOWNER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHERCONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH STEEP SEAS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER
SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AND LOCALIZED THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS NEAR REFUGIO.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

Event by event

2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys

When
September 1, 12:00 AM PST to September 6, 6:00 AM PST
Where
San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue

The Chimney Fire, in northern San Luis Obispo county, was finally contained in early September. In total, the fire burned 46,344 acres.

Wildfire, Santa Barbara County Mountains

When
September 1, 12:00 AM PST to September 15, 6:00 AM PST
Where
Santa Barbara County Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue

The Rey Fire, in northern San Luis Obispo county, was finally contained in early September. In total, the fire burned 33,606 acres.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, September 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652814, 652815.