California, 2016

Drought in California, May 1 to 31, 2016

May 1 to 31, 2016 · NWS STO · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Long term drought impacts continued through the month of May, though the largest of the reservoirs in northern interior California were at or above normal levels due to a significant mountain snow pack melting. Lake Shasta was 107% of normal by the end of the month, Lake Oroville was 111%, Folsom Lake was 101%, and Don Pedro was 99%.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

Long term drought impacts continued through the month of May, though the largest of the reservoirs in northern interior California were at or above normal levels due to a significant mountain snow pack melting. Lake Shasta was 107% of normal by the end of the month, Lake Oroville was 111%, Folsom Lake was 101%, and Don Pedro was 99%. New Melones continued to lag behind the other significant area reservoirs and was only 41% of normal. On April 21st, the Department of Water Resources increased water delivery projections to the State Water Project to 60%, up from the 45% estimate in late March.

The U.S. Drought Monitor showed improvement from extreme to severe drought across the southern Sacramento Valley; the northern and central Sacramento Valley and the northern Sierra improved from severe to moderate drought, while Shasta County improved from moderate drought to abnormally dry by the end of the month. The remainder of the Central and northern portion of the Southern Sierra Nevada mountain areas remained in the severe to extreme drought. There was improvement from exceptional to extreme in the Sierra south of Highway 50.

April-July forecasts remained the same or dropped when compared to the April 1 forecast. The changes were -5, and 0 respectively in the Sacramento and San Joaquin regions. Despite the presence last Fall of warmer-than-normal tropical sea surface temperatures and the thought by some that they would contribute to a very wet California winter, the April-July forecasts for the three main Sierra regions were below average. The water year forecasts are 102 and 91 percent of average for the Sacramento and San Joaquin regions.

Groundwater aquifers recharged much more slowly than the surface reservoirs, with many in the Central Valley still falling toward record levels.

Governor Jerry Brown declared a drought emergency for the entire state of California January 17, 2014 and this continued to be in effect. Governor Brown issued an executive order on May 9, 2016 that built on temporary statewide emergency water restrictions to establish longer-term water conservation measures, including permanent monthly water use reporting, new permanent water use standards in California communities and banned clearly wasteful practices such as hosing off sidewalks, driveways and other hardscapes.

Local Emergency Proclamations remain for Butte, Colusa, Calaveras, El Dorado, Glenn, Plumas, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tuolumne, and Yuba. The cities of Live Oak (Sutter County), Lodi (San Joaquin County), Manteca (San Joaquin County), Portola (Plumas County), Ripon (San Joaquin County), and |West Sacramento (Yolo County). Drought task forces have been established in Butte, Lake, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tuolumne, and Yolo counties to coordinate response to the drought.

Mandatory water reductions of 25 percent as ordered by Governor Brown were suspended in May due to the improved reservoir levels. Communities would set reduction guidelines based on their own projection of water supplies and the state could review the projections and impose restrictions on communities it determines were being unrealistic. In spite of the removal of the mandatory reductions, the State Water Resources Control Board announced that Californians reduced residential water use by 28 percent in May, compared with the same month in 2013.

The state continued to supply food assistance to those impacted by the drought, along with California Disaster Assistance Act money for those who have lost drinking water due to dry wells. Nonprofit organizations in the San Joaquin Valley struggled to meet the needs of their clients for drought-related programs.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 9:41 PM PST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 9:41 PM PST, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1041 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Synopsis...
Breezy north winds continue into Sunday, though not as strong as
today. Milder temperatures. Mountain shower chances return Sunday
afternoon. Better chance of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms by the middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Winds diminishing this evening with gusts generally under 15 mph.
Skies will remain clear overnight. Current forecast is on track
no evening update needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Breezy day across the region as last night's weather system moves
into Arizona and high pressure builds along the West Coast. Skies
are clear across most of interior NorCal this afternoon except for
cloudiness packed up along the northern Sierra crest from easterly
flow. Temperatures are a mixed bag today with mountain areas
generally cooler than 24 hours ago with readings in the 40s and
50s (continuing cold advection in the mid- levels) while the
Central Valley is running about 4-8 degrees warmer with temps in
the upper 70s and lower 80s under sunshine and some compressional
warming.

Northerly surface pressure gradients have begun to relax a bit,
and will decrease further tonight as the gradient shifts and
becomes more northeasterly by 12Z Sunday. While breezes will
continue overnight, most areas will see gusts drop below advisory
levels by late this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds will
continue into Sunday.

Eastern Pacific ridge develops into blocking high over the
northern Rockies on Sunday allowing some portion of the SW low to
retrograde back into NorCal from the east. This will bring a
return of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms to the
mountains Sunday and Monday. Valley high temperatures will be
mainly in the low to mid 80s.

Next upstream trough forecast to approach Tuesday marking the
beginning of the trend back toward cooler temps along with more
unsettled weather for NorCal heading into mid-week.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

A high amplitude trough of low pressure is forecast to be positioned
in the eastern Pacific and move into NorCal Wednesday.  The incoming
storm system will bring the needed lift behind enough moisture to
bring showers and thunderstorm chances for the entire forecast area.
A cool down of temperatures is expected with a return to near normal
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the valley, 50s to 60s in
the foothills, and the low to mid 40s in the higher elevations.

Models are in fairly good agreement as to the timing and spatial
extend of the upper level low pressure, and the system should stall
out over the west coast for a few days.  As a result of the
lingering system, cooler temperatures and chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. The transition between low and high pressure over NorCal
will bring gusty conditions in the valley through late evening for
the Sacramento area and southward, while gusty conditions will
continue in the north valley overnight through Sunday.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Northern Sacramento Valley

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System indicated there were still some homes without well water due to dry wells, with 3 in Shasta County, one more than in March. Tehama County was 34, unchanged from April.

Drought, Central Sacramento Valley

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Central Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System indicated there were some homes without well water due to dry wells with 25 in Glenn County, 3 lower than in April. Colusa County had 4, 5 less than in April. Butte County continued at 0 wells.

Drought, Southern Sacramento Valley

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Southern Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System indicated there were some homes without well water due to dry wells, with 1 in Yolo County, which was 2 less than April. There was 1 in Sacramento County, unchanged from April.

Drought, Carquinez Strait and Delta

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Carquinez Strait and Delta forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System had 1 home without well water in Solano County, unchanged from April.

Drought, Northern San Joaquin Valley

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Northern San Joaquin Valley forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System indicated there were some homes without well water due to dry wells, with 228 in Stanislaus County, unchanged since April, and 10 in San Joaquin County, 15 less than April. However, many communities in the Northern San Joaquin valley were still receiving food assistance as a direct result of the drought.

Drought, Motherlode/Camptonville to Groveland

When
May 1, 12:00 AM PST to May 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Motherlode/Camptonville to Groveland forecast zone
Reported by
State Official

The Household Water Supply Shortage Reporting System had Calavereas County with 1 household, Tuolumne County had 238 households, unchanged from April.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 640179, 640180, 640181, 640183, 640184, 640185.