A fading southwest swell produced a strong rip current that lead to one fatality at Blacks Beach.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGX wrote it up.
A fading southwest swell produced a strong rip current that lead to one fatality at Blacks Beach.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Diego, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 8:17 AM PST, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
917 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will strengthen through Monday, producing
very hot weather Sunday through Tuesday. High temperatures will
be well above normal, likely breaking several records, with Monday
being the hottest day. Some mid and upper level moisture will
produce numerous high clouds today and again Tuesday. A coastal
eddy could bring some cooling Tuesday along with a return of
night and morning coastal low clouds and fog. Warmer than normal
conditions for the coast and valleys, and hot conditions in the
deserts, will continue through the end of the work-week as the
ridge lingers over the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Latest visible satellite imagery indicates increasing mid and high
clouds coming up from Baja, a band of high clouds to the
northwest, and marine layer low clouds over the coastal waters. The
12Z sounding from Miramar shows warming of 2-4 degrees from the
surface up through 500 mb, which is evidence that a warmer air
mass produced by the ridge is starting to make its presence known.
Water vapor satellite shows the ridge to the east starting to
intrude into Southern California, while a low lingers off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Mid and high level moisture
associated with an upper level wave moving up from the south will
create increasing mid and high level clouds through the day today
and into early Sunday. The moisture associated with these clouds
will be confined between 600 and 250 mb at its deepest, but that
will likely be enough to produce virga and perhaps some sprinkles
over the region today and tonight. NAM And GFS show the potential
for even very light measurable precip, mainly along higher
terrain. May need to add sprinkles to the forecast. The NAM also
continues to show some elevated instability associated with this
moisture, but none of the other models show it, and there does not
appear to be a trigger mechanism, so dry lightning potential looks
very slim. However, these clouds may put somewhat of a damper on
highs today, but it should still be quite warm in most inland
areas, with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s over the Inland
Empire, upper 80s/low 90s in the San Diego county valleys and
inland Orange county, upper 70s/80s at the coast, upper 80s/low
90s along the lower mountain slopes, 70s above 6000 foot
elevation, 105-110 in the lower deserts and 90s in the high
deserts. These highs would be 5-15 degrees above normal.
The highly advertised upper level ridge will continue to
strengthen through Monday, peaking at 600 DM (or 601 DM if you
believe the ECMWF) at 500 mb over the four corners region, with
596-597 DM 500 mb heights and 31-33 deg C 850 mb temperatures reaching
into our forecast area Sunday and Monday. Monday still looks like
the hottest day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s at the
coast, 95-99 at few miles inland, 100-108 for the San Diego
county valleys, 95-105 for inland Orange County and lower mountain
slopes, 105-113 in the Inland Empire, 90s at mountain resort
levels, 108-113 in the High Deserts, and 116-120 in the lower
deserts. These highs would be 15-20 (and locally 25) degrees above
normal. This will result in numerous temperature records being
broken or tied on Sunday and especially Monday. See the CLIMATE
section below for more details. A Heat Advisory will be in effect
Sunday through Monday for coastal areas.
Tuesday is likely to be a little cooler, particularly at the
coast, due to a couple factors: the emergence of a coastal eddy
(which the GFS and WRF show developing Monday night) and mid and
high level clouds. However, although the models have been fairly
consistent in showing this coastal eddy developing, if it were not
to develop, then the cooling for coastal and valley areas may not
be as much as currently forecast. Given this uncertainty, the
Excessive Heat Warning for the valleys and inland Orange County
will go from Sunday through Tuesday. The mountains and deserts
will not feel the impact of the eddy, so with the ridge only
weakening very slightly on Tuesday, the expected cloud cover will
be the main factor in lowering highs in those areas by a few
degrees. Regardless, it will still be very hot in those areas.
With the expected coastal eddy, marine layer low clouds/fog may
develop along the coast as early as Monday night/Tuesday morning.
The ridge weakens a bit more on Wednesday, and with some lingering
mid and high clouds around, highs should drop a little further.
However, it will still be above normal in most areas and hot
conditions will persist in the mountains and deserts. The
Excessive Heat Warning for the mountains and deserts goes from
Sunday through Wednesday. Some moisture in southerly flow aloft
could be enough for some thunderstorms/showers to develop over the
mountains with day-time heating, although precipitable water is
not very impressive, at only 1.1 inches, so chances are not high.
Thursday through Saturday, the ridge will still dominate over the
Southern and Southwest U.S., continuing to create temperatures
several degrees above normal and hot conditions in the deserts.
With onshore flow and 500 mb heights not as high, a shallow marine
layer should be able to redevelop, resulting in night and morning
low clouds/fog over the coast and western valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...
181500Z...Sct high clouds across the region today, with areas of
smoke from the Sherpa Fire in the mid to high levels along the
coast. Very patchy areas of 4-6 SM BR tonight along the coast.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through Sun morning.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...NW wind gusts to 20 kt are possible over the outer waters
at times through Monday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is
expected through Wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
800 AM...An long-period south swell will continue elevated surf of
3-5 feet, with occasional sets to 6 feet, and very strong rip
currents along Orange County beaches today. A beach hazard statement
remains in effect for the area through 9 PM tonight. Surf of 3-4 ft,
with sets to 5 ft, will continue along San Diego County beaches
today. Surf will slowly diminish through the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Several high temperature records will likely be broken or tied on
Sunday and Monday with some record high minimum temperature
records broken or tied as well. Based on the current
forecast...here are some of the records that could be tied or
broken...
For Sunday...
Forecast Current Record
Newport Beach 87 82 in 1957
Chula Vista 93 88 in 1957**
Escondido 104 102 in 1929
El Cajon 103 94 in 2001
Ramona 104 102 in 2008
Alpine 105 103 in 1973
Palomar Mountain 94 91 in 1954
Palm Springs 116 116 in 2008
Borrego Springs 115 115 in 1989
For Monday...
Forecast Current Record
Newport Beach 85 82 in 1929
Chula Vista 92 85 in 2008*
Lake Elsinore 110 110 in 2008
Escondido 104 104 in 1973
El Cajon 102 94 in 2007
Ramona 106 106 in 2008
Big Bear Lake 93 92 in 1961
Idyllwild 98 95 in 2001
Palomar Mountain 98 91 in 1970
Campo 107 105 in 2008*
Palm Springs 119 118 in 1929
Indio 118 116 in 1929
Thermal 119 118 in 2008
Borrego Springs 118 116 in 2008
* - Ties all-time record for June
** - Breaks all-time record for June
For reference, the all-time record highs for June at
certain locations are as follows:
Chula Vista 92 (set in 1990)
Lake Elsinore 114 (set in 1917)
El Cajon 106 (set in 1990)
Ramona 108 (set in 1981)
Idyllwild 99 (set in 2013)
Campo 107 (set in 1994)
Palm Springs 122 (set in 2013)
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside
County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego
County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys-
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange
County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County
Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
PUBLIC/CLIMATE...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJTThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A swimmer got caught in a rip current and drown at Blacks Beach.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, San Diego County Coastal Areas | 2016-06-18 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 644625.