Wildfire in California, July 1 to 5, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
443 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...UPDATED AIR QUALITY INFORMATION...

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
through Saturday in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
The high will weaken over the holiday weekend and allow for
temperatures to lower to near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture is being shunted eastward as a
weak shortwave trough moves onshore near northern and central
California. Areas of convective development this afternoon are
staying mainly east of the Sierra crest and just east of Kern
County in the desert zones. 24 hr temperature trends outside the
San Joaquin Valley are generally running down a few degrees, while
Valley temps are as much as 3-6 degrees higher than yesterday.
These trends are expected to level out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with highs topping out generally within a degree or
so of yesterday.

The downward trend in convective development will continue through
the weekend as the weak shortwave continues to track inland and
westerly flow increases. This will bring cooling temperatures to
our area as well as breezy conditions through and below mountain
passes.

Model solutions are similar for early next week as they develop a
deeper trough along the west coast and move it inland through
midweek. This will maintain the dry conditions during the period
with a continued downward trend in temperatures and some gusty
winds through the mountains. By Wednesday temperatures are
expected to be down to around climo.

Models begin to diverge a bit for the latter part of next week,
although there are no indications of a strong change in the
pattern. The ridge is progged to build weakly northward, while
additional shortwave energy moves into the west coast. Our forecast
remains dry during the period, with temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
along the Sierra crest between 19z today and 03z Saturday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Saturday July 2 2016... Unhealthy in
Fresno and Kern Counties. Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National
Park and Forest. Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

public...JEB
avn/fw...Rowe/JEB
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford