Wildfire in California, July 1 to 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
320 AM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to be much above normal through Friday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Friday in
the southern Sierra Nevada. The high will weaken over the weekend
allowing for temperatures to lower to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A slight change in the current weather pattern as an area of
weakness pushes onshore around northern/central California. While
thunderstorms will continue to flare up over the Sierra Nevada
crest for several more days...the debris clouds will shift
eastward into the Owens Valley and Nevada. Upper air observations
from around the area show the westerly winds aloft that is
directing the monsoonal type moisture away from Central
California. However, at the surface, pressure gradients from KSFO
to KLAS are very weak and even shifting offshore. Therefore, will
not expect a total drying of the atmosphere over Central
California but, reduced chances of thunderstorms reach the San
Joaquin Valley is the short term. In addition, the area of
weakness will add little influence to the marine layer, which
remains near and below 1000 feet msl. Therefore, cooling in the
next several days will be minimal and synoptic in nature.

Models showing high confidence in the development of an upper trof
early in the week with its center over Southwestern Canada.
While Sunday could continue to see a southerly flow aloft, with
some components of a southeasterly flow. Therefore, models do show
mountain convection on Sunday, the trend will be for a gradual
decrease in precipitation as the westerly flow increases. By
midweek, models dig the trof further south with stronger winds and
cooling temperatures being the main features during that time
frame. Yet, the cooling from early in the period to midweek will
be in the range of 5 to 10 deg-F. Therefore, the district will
remain too far south to feel the influences of the upper trof.

Longer range models showing less agreement in the possible
solution for the latter part of the forecast cycle. While models
show one trof exit the area and lift northeast toward the Northern
Rockies, another trof attempts to occupy its space. Will opt for
more of the ECMWF solution and introduce the upper low into the
Pacific Northwest around the Friday time frame. The upper low will
be influencing temperatures over the district just beyond the
forecast period into next weekend. While confidence decreases
toward day seven, models show a most dry pattern prevailing
through out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
Sierra crest between 19z today and 03z Saturday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday July 1 2016...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno...Kern and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and
Forest. Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

public...Molina
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford