Snow, ice, and freezing rain fell across northern California on these days.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Snow, ice, and freezing rain fell across northern California on these days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 5, 2:54 PM PST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 PM PST TUE JAN 5 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PROGRESS INLAND
DURING WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AIDING IN EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION ALONG THE TRINITY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO MOUNT SHASTA.
DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, DOWNSLOPING
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION OCCURING IN THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS, SO KEPT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY LOW
FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY.
SNOW FORECAST... THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 4AM AND
10AM DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN SNOW RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. HEAVY WET
SNOW IS A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 32 TO 34
DEGREES. SO COMPACTION DUE TO WINDS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SNOW RATIOS MAY THROW THE FORECAST OFF AND PUT SNOW TOTALS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. NONE THE LESS, STILL A PRETTY HAZARDOUS EVENT GIVEN
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW. FOR THE FORECAST DURING
WEDNESDAY,USED A SNOW RATIO OF 10:1, BUT LOWER SNOW RATIOS DUE TO
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND WIND COMPACTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS FOR
THE CASCADES AND EASTSIDE, NO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS... UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING 4AM AND 10AM WEDNESDAY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. IT LOOKS LIKE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AGAIN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.
AFTER THURSDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON IN ADDITION TO A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...
EXTENDED...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THAT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW LITTLE
AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH BOTH INDICATE A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST, THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
BUT ALLOWS IT TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
PUTS AN EFFECTIVE BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY
THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND SHOWS THE SPLIT
JET STREAM STRETCHING THE FRONT AND SHIFTING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE MOST OF OUR AREA DRY. AT THIS POINT, HAVE WENT
WITH A BLEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON (EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST) AND WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THE CHALLENGE WITH THE POPS FORECAST, THE MODEL SPLIT
WILL IMPACT THE CONFIDENCE OF OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. FOR
EXAMPLE, CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH IS TIED INTO THE POPS FORECAST WILL
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH THE DRY TREND
SEEN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE FORECAST ALSO FAVORS A COLD TREND
(ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT FOR THE EAST SIDE). GUIDANCE MAY NOT CAPTURE
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WELL, SO HAVE FORECAST LOWER MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST SIDE.
THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE, BUT THE SAME SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERN SHOWS UP AGAIN
AND BOTH MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IN REGARDS TO THE NEXT
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE QUICKER AND DRIER
SOLUTION WHILE THE EC SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER AT THIS POINT, BUT WITH THE SERIES OF FRONTS COMING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT APPEARS AS IF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEST OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. -SCHAAF
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF LOWERING TO MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION DUE TO
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. PRECIPITATION WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. ADDITIONALLY...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ALSO DIP TO IFR
AND MVFR ACROSS THE UMPQUA BASIN AND THE COAST AND ANYWHERE THERE IS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ROGUE
VALLEY WILL BECOME FOGGY TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THIS.
THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
-SCHAAF
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 835 AM PST TUESDAY, 5 JAN 2016... OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN THAT THE SEAS ARE ARRIVING A TOUCH MORE SLOWLY, BUT WINDS
ARE COMING IN AS FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, HIGH LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL STILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN. GALES ARE LIKELY
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER HIGH LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
-SCHAAF
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE
2500 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080>083-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ081>083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
CZS/BMS/NSK/The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter in Mount Shasta City reported ice accumulations of 0.5 inches in freezing rain. He stated the the back roads and sidewalks in northern Mount Shasta City were an ice rink.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 610498.