Wildfire in California, August 9 to 18, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
346 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures can be expected over
the central California interior through midweek along with a
prevailing onshore flow. Warmer weather will return later in
the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the district.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR satellite images show clear conditions across the central CA
interior. A few warmer pixels indicated west of coalinga near the
Monterrey county border due to a wildfire. Coastal onshore gradients
starting to increase with wind gust to 25 mph being reported in
parts of the delta. Marine layer remains shallow near 1000 feet
in Oakland. Thus there may be little additional cooling from
marine air moving into the San Joaquin Valley. An upper trough
off the N CA coast will dig South into central CA today. This
will increase the maritime onshore flow and keep temperatures
cool around seasonal levels. Winds should become breezy across
the Kern county desert this evening as stronger upper level winds
move over the Mojave desert. Wind direction will be from the SW
paralleling the transverse mountains so do not expect strong
gusty winds below mountain passes of the Tehachapis.

Models prog additional shortwave energy rotating inland across
the region Wednesday, which will maintain the trough and the
prevailing onshore flow pattern. This should keep temperatures at
persistence near normal levels through wednesday. The weather
system will have little moisture to work with for any threat of
precipitation. By Thursday, models agree on lifting the trough out
to the East and rebuilding a ridge along the West coast. This will
bring warming temperatures for the end of the week, with
temperatures climbing to a few degrees above normal then moving
into triple digit territory for much of the weekend.

Model consensus remains good for early next week with another
trough moving into ncal which will weaken the ridge and cool
temperatures back to around normal for Monday. However 00z model
trends have been trending much weaker with the upper trough. So
the cooling for next week may be minor. With no significant
moisture influx into our area, the forecast remains free of
precipitation throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the Central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday August 9 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

public...MV
avn/fw...Durfee
prev discussion...JEB
synopsis...Andersen

weather.gov/hanford