Widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding occurred from Santa Cruz and southwest Cochise counties northwest across eastern Pima and southern Pinal counties. Tropical Storm Javier caused the marked increase in moisture across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding occurred from Santa Cruz and southwest Cochise counties northwest across eastern Pima and southern Pinal counties. Tropical Storm Javier caused the marked increase in moisture across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 4:13 AM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
413 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...The big story this week is the increasing potential
for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. A deep tropical surge of
moisture is expected across the region today and Wednesday from
moisture associated with Tropical Storm Javier. This will not only
result in a significant increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late today into Thursday, but will increase the
possibility for heavy rainfall as well.
&&
.UPDATE...Just amended the forecast to account for showers and
thunderstorms that will be affecting southern portions of Cochise
and Santa Cruz counties early this morning. A cluster of storms
south of the Bisbee/Douglas area are moving generally to the
northwest and additional showers and storms have also developed over
the higher terrain between Nogales and Sierra Vista. I increased
rain chances for the rest of the morning hours as this batch of
showers and storms affects areas along the international border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 09/00Z upper-air plots
indicate that the synoptic pattern is defined by a ridge to our
southeast across northeast Mexico and a low pressure system over the
Pacific Northwest and its associated trough axis that extends across
northern California and into the eastern Pacific waters. Meanwhile,
Javier, which as of 3 AM MDT (2 AM MST) was located about 40 miles
northwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The official forecast track
from the Hurricane Center has the system moving northwest over the
next few days and generally following the west coast of the Baja
peninsula, reaching the general vicinity of the Baja Spur by late
Wednesday evening, but weakening to just a remnant low by midday
Wednesday.
The main impact from this system will be from showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain as a result of a
considerable moisture surge over the next day or so. The latest GPS
Precipitable water values from the Univ of AZ show Tucson at around
1.5 inches as of 0545Z, while Hermosillo, Mex comes in at around 2.3
inches. The 06Z CIRA LPW imagery shows totals of around 1.7 inches
just to the south of the Arizona border and 2.5+ inches over the
central Gulf of California and just south of Hermosillo (MMHO).
As the Pacific trough continues to move east into the Great Basin by
late Wednesday, models forecast PW's to increase to around the 2
inch mark for parts of my forecast area beginning late tonight and
into early Wednesday. As a result, expect showers and thunderstorms
to increase considerably, especially late tonight into Wednesday,
with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting most
of my forecast area and extending well north and east. Trying to pin
down storm total rainfall amounts over the next few days is the
biggest challenge. For now we have widespread areas of 1.0-1.5
inches for most valley locations, and around 2.0-3.5 inches for
mountain tops. That said, a flash flood watch has already been
hoisted for parts of the Desert Southwest that include all of my
forecast area, as well as a large part of the Phoenix forecast area,
a small part of the Flagstaff area of responsibility and parts of
west central New Mexico. The flash flood watch for my forecast area
begins late this afternoon and continues through late Wednesday
evening.
The aforementioned trough will move generally east from the Great
Basin and across Utah and Colorado late Thursday/early Friday before
stalling over the central plains this weekend. As this occurs, high
pressure nudging in from the west will result in a north to
northeast component to the winds aloft and with moisture lingering
just to our east, we will maintain isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly each afternoon and evening
through early next week. Most of the activity will reside to the
east and south of Tucson toward New Mexico.
For Tucson, high temperatures will generally be near normal today,
then around 7 to 9 degs below normal Wednesday and Thursday and 2 to
4 degs below normal by Friday. Thereafter, highs within a degree or
two of normal each day. Low temps will range from 2 to 5 degs above
normal each morning.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds around 10k ft AGL into late morning with increasing
clouds and lowering CIGS through the day. Expect isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA into this afternoon, eventually becoming
scattered to numerous into Tuesday night. MVFR conditions are
possible with the stronger TSRA, with brief IFR conditions Tuesday
night as areas of showers capable of producing heavy rain spread in
from the south. Sfc winds generally 10 kts or less outside of gusty
TSRA outflows. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...No significant fire weather concerns. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
Tuesday night through Thursday in conjunction with a strong moisture
increase from the remnants of (currently) Tropical Storm Javier.
There is a potential for very heavy rain during this period. Much
higher relative humidities and cooler daytime temperatures are also
expected this week. A drying trend, along with warmer temperatures,
is then expected over the upcoming weekend. Outside of thunderstorm
wind gusts, 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch from late this
afternoon through late Wednesday evening for AZZ501>515.
&&
PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/TucsonThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:13 UTC.
4 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain of about 2.5 inches in 1 hour caused flash flooding south of Sierra Vista. Miller Creek overflowed Moson Rd while Ramsey Rd and Arabian Rd were also flooded.
Three to four inches or more of rainfall in one to two hours caused Sonoita Creek to overflow its banks into parts of Patagonia. Eight mobile homes were evacuated as a precaution with water 18 inches deep surrounding them. An additional 14 homes were also evacuated. Only minimal damage occurred to the skirting of these homes since they were elevated off the surface.
Heavy rain caused Peck Canyon to overflow its banks and flood adjacent streets in Rio Rico.
Heavy rain of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 90 minutes caused widespread flash flooding in Tucson and resulted in a total of 45 stranded motorist calls and 8 swift water rescues. One rescue involved a Pima County Supervisor, who was swept away in her vehicle near Ft. Lowell and Oracle Rd. Flood waters caused major road damage near Lee St. and Santa Rosa Avenue. The Stone St. underpass was flooded to a depth of 8 feet. Flash flooding also caused delays and closures along Sandario Rd in Picture Rocks. Near Silverbell Rd and Speedway Rd, multiple lower level townhouses incurred flood damage. A few residences in Green Valley suffered minor flooding.
Three to four inches of rainfall in 1 to 2 upstream, Sonoita Creek overtopped the spillway at Patagonia Lake and flooded areas below the Lake downstream to Rio Rico. A portion of Pendelton Drive near Avenida Coatimundi in Rio Rico where Sonoita Creek crosses the road was barricaded during the day. At 2115 LST a motorist was stranded after he drove around the barricades and attempted to cross the water.
Heavy rain upstream from Tucson and along smaller washes near Ironwood National Monument caused strong flows in the Santa Cruz River, which breached a dirt barrier near Sunland Gin Road south of Arizona City. The water reached four feet at its maximum depth. The roadway was closed for nearly two days which cutoff the only access for residents of Silverbell Estates to the southwest.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 658442, 658443, 658470, 658459, 658469, 658830.