Heavy rain brought flooding to east Arkansas during December 4-8, 2016.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to east Arkansas during December 4-8, 2016.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 3, 10:54 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1054 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... Have updated the forecast to decrease POPs across a good portion of the CWA overnight as the bulk of the precip activity is shifting east. Still expect some patchy light rain overnight...as well as some DZ. Some areas could see some patchy fog as well...with some low clouds continuing. Rain chances will linger during the first half of the day on Sun...with some patchy areas of light rain areawide...then only in the SERN counties in the afternoon. Widespread rainfall then comes back to the forecast late Sun night and especially for Mon. Also...have updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... The widespread rainfall is slowly ending from west to east...with more spotty rainfall or sprinkles observed over WRN sections of the area. Behind the main area of rainfall...expect some DZ and patchy fog...with MVFR to as low as LIFR conditions expected overnight into just after sunrise Sun morning. By later on Sun...do think improving conditions may be seen...at least in terms of precip and fog. However..CIGS may remain MVFR through the end of this TAF period. && PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016) Short Term...Tonight through Monday... The principal weather concern this afternoon is still the upper level low located over western North America. Water vapor imagery reveals the low centered along the Sonoran coast on the Gulf of California, drifting slowly eastward. Analysis of a diverse set of model data shows fairly good consistency in moving this low eastward over the next 48 hours into the Ern OK/Nern Tx region, with the trof becoming negatively tilted. The low will continue to kick out shortwaves across the area until it approaches late in the period. Best rain chances will be tonight through early tomorrow, and again on Monday as the upper level low approaches. Midlevel lapse rates will become quite a bit steeper on Monday as the low approaches the area, and there will be an impressive amount of upper level difluence to the northeast of the negatively tilted trof and upper low. Although surface temperatures will remain on the low side and there will not be much instability in the lower layers, I have opted to include isolated thunderstorms in the forecast during the day on Monday due to the aforementioned reasons - principally for the southeast half of the forecast area. At the surface the area will remain under the control of high pressure, and a northerly wind component will continue throughout the period. QPF values are always a bit tricky, but under the current scenario the heaviest rainfall should remain primarily in the southeast, with average basin values in the one inch range this afternoon and tonight, with locally higher amounts approaching two inches. Outside of the southeast rainfall totals will be quite a bit less. As for aviation concerns...flying weather is going to be rather lousy for the remainder of the afternoon and tonight for most sites. LIFR conditions are already present at a number of sites across the south, with IFR conditions generally across the rest of the south. By midnight tonight I am anticipating LIFR conditions at all of our TAF sites. LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday... Widespread rain will be ongoing Monday night as a strong upper low moves directly over Arkansas after lifting northeast out of south Texas. The upper low will is also associated with a cold front that will move through the area between midnight and sunrise Tuesday. The rain should rapidly end from west to east Tuesday morning and be completely out of the CWA by noon. Being primarily north of the warm front, thunder appears unlikely, but if it does occur it will be across southern portions of the CWA. Strong storms are NOT expected. Mostly dry Tuesday night in advance of a reinforcing arctic front to move though the state Wed...most likely during the afternoon in Little Rock. Virtually all models are in agreement in bringing some post frontal precip with the front, so have included pops in the forecast Wed and Wed night. It's possible that precip could linger just long enough Wed night that a brief bout of light snow or rain/snow mix may occur across the northwestern portions of the state, and most likely occurring in the higher elevations. At this point little or no accumulations are expected. However, this bears watching as temps and timing of this system are difficult to predict this far out. Regardless, any snow will not last long. It is also worst noting that the GFS is faster with the frontal passage with less precip than the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually keeps pops around on Thu, but this model appears to be the outlier. Much colder temps anticipated Wed night through the weekend, with another arctic cold front possible Sunday. Rain may accompany that front as well. Thu night could be the coldest temps we have experienced since the winter of 2014-15, since our coldest low at Little Rock last winter was 22F. Wind chills Thu should stay mainly in the 20s. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && 62
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 500 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041100- BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD- INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY- FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND- SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT- JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN- BRADLEY-DREW- 500 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVER ARKANSAS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. A NEW STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ARKANSAS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK. 44
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused flooding at Patterson 12/4 to 12/8.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 670083.