Arizona, 2016

Flash Flood in Arizona, September 2, 2016

September 2, 2016 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Scattered thunderstorms moved northeast across Cochise County during the afternoon. One storm produce heavy rain that caused localized flash flooding.

Where it happened

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  • Tropical storms and surge
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  • Hail
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  • Heat and drought
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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Scattered thunderstorms moved northeast across Cochise County during the afternoon. One storm produce heavy rain that caused localized flash flooding.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 8:21 AM MST, 5 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 2, 8:21 AM MST, 5 hours 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
821 AM MST FRI SEP 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will commence across the region today
with thunderstorm chances mainly to the east of Tucson. Dry
conditions will prevail this holiday weekend with the exception of
the white mountains where a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms continue Saturday. Daytime temperatures will remain
above normal through this weekend. Thereafter, there is the
potential for tropical moisture to move into the area for the middle
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery shows partly to mostly
cloudy skies, scattered to broken clouds, across much of southeast
Arizona this morning. The 12z TWC raob/sounding indicated 1.40" of
Precipitable Water, with the Composite Sounder DPI Total PW Imagery
showing values ranging from around 1" to 1.6" across the southern
half of Arizona attm. The sounder imagery does indicate some drier
air (~0.70") over northern Sonora which will begin to mix into the
forecast area today as mid/upper level southwesterly flow
strengthens in response to a developing trough along the west coast.
Although this drier air is expected to begin to advect into the
forecast area today, there will still be enough moisture for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...mainly east of
Tucson. Expect to see first shower/thunderstorm development by late
morning, continuing through the afternoon, and into the early
evening hours tonight before dissipating. Shower/storm movement will
be to the northeast at 10-15 mph. Ongoing forecast package looks to
be in good shape. For more information on the latter periods of the
forecast, please refer to the Prev Discussion section below. No
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/15Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mostly east of KTUS to the New Mexico border
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, SKC to SCT clouds around 12k
ft msl west of KTUS into Saturday morning. KTUS vicinity eastward, a
few to occasionally OVC clouds around 10k-15k ft msl through the
period. Surface wind will follow diurnal trends mainly less than 10
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms will occur mostly east of
Tucson this afternoon and evening. A strong drying trend will then
commence Saturday through Monday. A slight chance of thunderstorms
continues mainly across the White Mountains Saturday followed by dry
conditions Sunday into Labor Day. Increasing moisture from the south
is expected to occur Tuesday into Thursday. This should translate
into a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 20-foot winds
will generally be less than 15 mph today, then some elevated south
to southwest winds Saturday into Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear
skies south and west of Tucson with partly to mostly cloudy skies to
the northeast of Tucson. The mid/upper level pattern flow pattern is
now changing across the region and becoming more westerly as a
longwave trough starts to establish itself across the west coast.
This is advecting drier air into the forecast area today, but there
will still remain enough moisture for isolated to low end scattered
showers and thunderstorms...mainly to the east of Tucson. As drier
air continues to move in this weekend, dry conditions will prevail
with the exception of the White Mountains on Saturday where a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue. Meanwhile,
slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the holiday
weekend.

There is plenty of uncertainty beyond the holiday weekend into the
middle of next week as our attention starts to turn towards the
tropics. There remains a wide gamut of solutions for next week with
a possible tropical cyclone across the eastern Pacific. The 02/00Z
ECMWF remains quite robust tracking a tropical cyclone to the west
of the Baja peninsula next week which would result in a strong surge
of moisture for our area. Meanwhile, for example, the 02/00Z GFS and
Canadian are drier for our region as tropical cyclone initiation and
track remains weaker and/or farther south. Lots of uncertainty in the
ensemble members as well. Made only minor changes to the forecast
with slight chance to chance PoPs starting Tuesday and continuing
through Thursday but confidence remains below normal.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:15 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Cochise

When
September 2, 2:15 PM MST to 3:30 PM MST
Where
Cochise County, 5.32 mi S of Dragoon to 4.24 mi S of Dragoon
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
31.954, -110.041

Thunderstorms produced brief heavy rain that caused 6 to 12 inches of water to flow over Dragoon Road and Old Ranch Road.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659805.