Monsoon moisture over the eastern Mogollon Rim brought heavy rain and hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Monsoon moisture over the eastern Mogollon Rim brought heavy rain and hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 10:40 AM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1040 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon across much of northern Arizona. Storm coverage will decrease significantly this weekend as drier air moves in from the west. Moisture and storm chances will increase again next week mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim. && .DISCUSSION... Update to increase thunderstorm chances this afternoon along the Mogollon rim from Flagstaff southeastward. .940 am discussion...We have issued an Excessive Heat Warning for areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon and the Yavapai Valleys. It runs from now through 7 pm Saturday. Max temps to run from 110- 115, and overnight lows from 74-84. Satellite pw imagery shows monsoon moisture across all of nrn Az this morning. Warmer mid level temps are forecast to slowly move into far western AZ later today. The forecast is on track with no updates planned. && .Prev Discussion 307 am...The axis of strong high pressure will shift over or just south of the forecast area today through Saturday. Moisture will linger across the area today so some scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected with the best chance along and just north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. A few storms could produce heavy rainfall again today, but should be localized. By Saturday, some westerly flow will push drier air into the region with the most pronounced drying from around Flagstaff northward. This will reduce storm chances across Coconino and Yavapai Counties. The greatest storm chances will remain over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where deeper moisture will linger. Most model guidance shows the ridge shifting back northward as early as Sunday into midweek. This should allow for some better moisture and storm chances to gradually return, especially for areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Depending on where the high eventually sets up, we could see some east or northeast steering flow off the higher terrain which is favorable for some stronger storms in the late afternoon and evening in Gila County and the lower elevations of Yavapai County. Far northern Arizona (along/north of Grand Canyon to Window Rock) often remains drier in this pattern. With high pressure in place, expect hot temperatures in this area, 110+ at Phantom Ranch, 102-104 at Page and near 90 at Grand Canyon south rim. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Monsoon moisture remains. Look for scattered thunderstorms to develop from KFLG eastward with isolated storms to the west. VFR conditions will prevail but local MVFR will be possible in the stronger storm cells. Storm coverage diminishing after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drier westerly flow will begin a decreasing trend in thunderstorms today...most notable across the western half of Arizona. The drying trend continues Saturday when afternoon humidity will drop into the 15-25% range as temperatures rise well above average. Sunday through Tuesday...Decreased thunderstorm chances and warm temperatures continue Sunday. Moisture may begin to increase from the Mogollon Rim (Flagstaff area) south from Monday onward. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...MCS FIRE WEATHER...MCS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 857 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-230045- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 857 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON AND YAVAPAI VALLEY...SEE PHXNPWFGZ FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON AND YAVAPAI VALLEY CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Approximately 1.55 inches of rain fell in 55 minutes. The ground was white with dime sized hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654655.