A cut off low from off the southern California Coast brought abundant moisture and heavy rain to parts of northern Arizona with heavy snow in the higher elevations.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A cut off low from off the southern California Coast brought abundant moisture and heavy rain to parts of northern Arizona with heavy snow in the higher elevations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 3:31 PM MST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 331 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A large area of low pressure off the Baja Coast will continue to increase moisture over Arizona tonight with mild temperatures. Wet weather will move across northern Arizona Thursday and Friday with mainly rain showers. A much colder storm will arrive Christmas Eve with rapidly lowering snow levels. Clear and cold conditions are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure off the Baja Coast will continue to increase moisture (from the sub tropics) and mostly rain showers over Arizona tonight. Cold air along the Utah boarder (Page area) will allow much lower snow levels initially. Over the next 36 hours, this low will head to the northeast and cross Arizona. The main forcing for upward motion and highest moisture values will be during the day Thursday. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim. In general, the warm origins of this system will ensure mainly rain across Arizona with the snow level perhaps dipping as low as the 8000-9000 foot range (south of the Utah border area). Accumulating snow is expected over only the very highest mountain peaks, generally above the 9000 foot level. A brief lull in the precipitation is expected during the day Friday as the warm low moves off to the northeast and the next system gears up to impact Arizona. A cold Pacific trough of low pressure will move into the West Coast on Friday and across Arizona on Saturday and Saturday night. This system is more dynamically driven with most of the precipitation falling along a strong cold front as it moves through Arizona. The winds will also increase Friday afternoon through the night. This front will rapidly drop the snow levels. The snow level at the I-17/I-40 corridor will drop from around 8000 feet early Saturday to 4000 feet Saturday evening. Accumulating snow looks likely in the high country with snow- packed roads and winter driving. Please plan accordingly. Please stay tuned to the forecast this week and have a reliable way to receive weather updates. Travel may become hazardous on Saturday. Cold weather continues through Christmas Day while showers taper off. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...Expect increasing clouds and rain showers with MVFR ceilings and isolated IFR conditions over higher terrain. After 06Z Thursday, heavier rain showers and MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely across the majority of northern Arizona. Shower activity will taper from West to East on Friday morning after sunrise with scattered MVFR/IFR conditions through Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MAS AVIATION...Bohlin For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 344 PM MST WED DEC 21 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-220730- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 344 PM MST WED DEC 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES OVER ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS COULD INITIALLY DROP INTO THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER TONIGHT. MOST OTHER POPULATED AREAS WILL SEE RAIN TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO ARIZONA TO NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 TO 9000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS COULD INITIALLY DROP INTO THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY WITH WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEK AS DETAILS EVOLVE, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A weather spotter reported 1.78 inches of rain in Forest Lakes.
Heavy rain caused Oak Creek to flood. The lower end of Doodlebug Road was impassible. The gauge on Oak Creek at Sedona (Tlaquepaque) started to show an increase in flow just after midnight on the 21st. By 930 AM on th2 21st, the creek had risen 4 feet and some of the low water crossings were closed. The base flow is at 2.43 feet and 43 CFS. There were several crests as different drainages emptied into the main creek. The peak flow was 7.68 feet (4,330 CFS) at 545 AM MST on the 23rd. The crest moved down past the Cornville gauge at 1000 AM MST on the 23rd at 3,730 CFS.
Heavy rain caused significant rise on Dry Beaver Creek (the creek jumped from 43 CFS to 1,030 CFS in 15 minutes (2.84 feet to 4.65 feet) starting at 815 AM MST. A swift water rescue was preformed where East Kimberly's Way crosses Dry Beaver Creek at a low water crossing (215 PM MST on the 22nd). The creek crested at 2,310 CFS (5.78 feet--almost a 3 foot rise) at 215 PM MST on the 22nd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664373, 664380, 664378.