High Wind in Alaska, January 27, 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE POWERFUL STORM THAT IMPACTED MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WORKS OUT AS FORECASTED. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 67 KT WERE REPORTED IN LINCOLN ISLAND ON CLARENCE STRAIT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LAND AREAS ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT REPORTED
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REPORTED IN
KETCHIKAN AREA. PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ALSO SAW GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WERE
ALSO SOUTH OF WRANGELL OVERNIGHT. ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND,
PORT ALEXANDER REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 67 MPH OVERNIGHT. THERE WERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES, POWER OUTAGES, AND PROPERTY
DAMAGES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WIND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND THEN INLAND INTO
INTERIOR ALASKA AND YUKON THIS MORNING. THIS LEAD TO A RAPID
PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE IN SITKA ROSE 15
MB IN 2 HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN JUNEAU AND KETCHIKAN THIS MORNING WAS A WHOPPING 20 MB,
WHICH IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. WITH A
VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND A VERY RAPID
PRESSURE RISE, THIS LEAD TO A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT
THAT SPREADS THE VERY STRONG WIND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. JUNEAU AREA SAW THE WIND SPIKED UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH
RANGE AT AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING. SHEEP MOUNTAIN, AT AN ELEVATION
OF 3800 FEET JUST 2 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, REPORTED A PEAK
GUST OF 160 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 140 MPH THIS MORNING.
THESE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OBSERVED BY THE SHEEP
MOUNTAIN STATION.

AS THE LOW JUMPS INLAND, THE WIND IN CROSS SOUND TURNS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WIND OF 50 KT LATE THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH THEN SPREAD INTO LYNN CANAL AREA.
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED ALONG LYNN CANAL.
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS TO 45 MPH WAS REPORTED IN HAINES, AND
SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED IN SKAGWAY.

PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL STORM REPORTS, NWS ALASKA FACEBOOK,
@NWSJUNEAU TWITTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE IMPACTS OF THE
STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AS ANOTHER STORM FORCE WEATHER
FRONT IS READY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH 940S-MB, IS MOVING FROM NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE STORM FORCE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL SPREAD INTO
THE OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT DYNAMICS THAN THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. MOST OF THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE ALOFT, AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE STABLE, THUS KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. DO EXPECT
40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM CHICHAGOF ISLAND INTO BARANOF ISLAND.
HOWEVER, A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE OF WALES
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH EXPECTED. FOR KETCHIKAN AREA, DO EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 55 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED IN INLAND LOCATIONS
INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KAKE.

BESIDES STRONG WIND, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE IMPACTING THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENTRENCHED FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE STILL
SOME REMNANT COLD AIR OVER THE HIGHER ELVATIONS OF KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY INCLUDING WHITE PASS. EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
TOMORROW...HEAVIEST DURING THE DAY. ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA. FOR HAINES HIGHWAY, THERE WILL BE MORE WARM
AIR IN PLACE. DO EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NEAR THE HAINES
CUSTOMS, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2 INCHES.

MODEL OF CHOICE IS HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL FOR THE INSIDE
CHANNELS WINDS. USES GFS FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS WINDS. MINOR
CHANGES FOR OTHER METEORLOGICAL FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS WE
HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM SECTION DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF ON
FRIDAY BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOW FAR NORTH THAT
PRECIPITATION GETS IS STILL IN QUESTION.

THEREAFTER RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SOME WEAK OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY MODELS INDICATE THIS DRY PERIOD WILL
EXTEND AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

USED THE 12Z GFS FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH DAY
4 THEN THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ022.
     STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ028.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-033>035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-032-053.
&&

RCL/TPS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU