Brief high wind occurred on Lopez island.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Brief high wind occurred on Lopez island.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 5, 3:37 AM PST, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
337 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A PARADE OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY. A COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERY PATTERN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE SMALL UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY EVENING IS MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. RAIN
BEGAN ON THE NORTH COAST JUST BEFORE 2 AM. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES
AT 2 AM RANGED FROM 34 DEGREES AT SHELTON TO 50 DEGREES AT
BELLINGHAM...AND WINDS WERE LOCALLY GUSTING TO MORE THAN 30 MPH
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR.
THE STRONG WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND 850 MB WINDS IN
THE 40 TO 60 KT RANGE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND PEAK MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS -- UP TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH --
LIKELY AT THE COAST...IN THE NORTH INTERIOR...AND IN THE EAST
PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
2 TO 6 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES...WITH GENERALLY
1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST. MOST
SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD GET 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE
SNOW LEVEL IS STARTING NEAR 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FT IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FT IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES WITH
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS LIKE THE MOUNT BAKER
HIGHWAY...STEVENS PASS...AND PARADISE AT MOUNT RAINIER.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT LOOKS AT LEAST AS STRONG WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL CLIMBING TO AROUND 5500 FT MONDAY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES AT THE
COAST AND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHOWN A STRONG SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OTHERS HAVE
SHOWN A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND. EITHER OF THESE WOULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE
06Z SAT RUN OF THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS A DEEPER SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO SOUTHWEST MAINLY BRITISH
COLUMBIA MONDAY. MCDONNAL
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE JETSTREAM
BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED SHOWERY SIDE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS LOW...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. BOTTOM LINE IS THE WET
AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER MORE SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT LEAST THE LOWER PASSES. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN ON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REACH THE INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT NEARS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS NEAR 2500 FEET APPROACH 40 TO 45 KT
WITH 5000 FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 70 KT BY 00Z.
KSEA...VFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN REACHING THE TERMINAL 15Z-18Z.
EASTERLY WIND SHOULD KEEP CEILING MOSTLY ABOVE MVFR UNTIL AFTER 03Z.
EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED AFTER 08Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG MIDDAY THROUGH TONIGHT. 27
&&
.MARINE...A SUB 980 MILLIBAR LOW CENTER WILL APPROACH HAIDA GWAII
LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REACH THE
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST
GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND WATERS WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL SWING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
REACHING WASHINGTON WATERS ON MONDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BIG WAVES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 25 FEET MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
WARNING FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
SLOWLY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE OLYMPICS WILL DRIVE THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AGAIN LATER TODAY. THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE INCOMING SERIES OF WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING LOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS -- TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE COMMON. BUT THE
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...MEANING THERE WILL BE BREAKS BETWEEN
THE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN 7000 FT OR BELOW...AND THAT IS LOWER THAN WHAT NORMALLY
OCCURS IN A WESTERN WASHINGTON FLOODING SITUATION.
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER COULD FLOOD AT TIMES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
EVENT APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW. MCDONNAL
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PST SUNDAY
FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN
JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COAST-
NORTH COAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR EAST PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.
&&
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTMLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Lopez island recorded 42g54 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 605117.