An upper level trough moved across the southern plains and developed a few thunderstorms one of which produced severe wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
An upper level trough moved across the southern plains and developed a few thunderstorms one of which produced severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 11:47 AM CST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. GENERALLY LGT/MODERATE NE/E WIND THIS AFTN... LGT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX/ UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SW-NE AXIS OVER THE REGION. LAPS ANALYSES REVEAL INCREASING CAPE VALUES/DECREASING CIN VALUES OVER THE REGION. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICT PWAT VALUES AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OVER THE ERN CWA THIS AFTN/MUCH DRIER WEST. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING/MSTR/INSTABILITY TO CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN MAINLY OVER THE SERN HALF. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/POPS/WIND. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/ ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 7000FT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME ISO SHRA IS ONGOING WEST OF KSAT/KSSF NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN CENTRAL SITE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SHRA APPEARS MORE PROBABLE THAN VCTS/TSRA AS INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOUR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY FROM THE NE/E THROUGH THE AFTN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH WEST TEXAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EVIDENT ON BOTH WV AND IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. PWAT VALUES HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO NE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS NO DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE ESCARPMENT. ASIDE FROM THE ECM WHICH IS FAIRLY DRY BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR NE ZONES...MOST HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...HAVE GENERALLY BLANKETED THIS AREA WITH 20 PERCENT POPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH WHERE RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON SATURDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MERGES WITH A BROAD MIDLEVEL LOW AND SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER SPOTS SHOULD BE DRY AS NORTHERLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER THAT REPRESENTS WHAT LITTLE IS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH MAKE A S/SW NOSE DIVE DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ALL MODELS SHOW THAT ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY OR DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LEANED TOWARDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE DRIER GFS THAT SIMULATED A BROADER LOW THAT KEPT MOST QPF JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE NON-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND CANADIAN...HAS MERGED TO THE WETTER ECM SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN POINTING TOWARDS A MORE FOCUSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS ECM RUNS SUGGESTED THIS WOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LATEST RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN LOOSELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER EAST...AND THE GFS AT THE VERY LEAST DEPICTS A STATIONARY LOW INSTEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE ONE. THUS...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE ECM SOLUTION AND 20-30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED IN FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY-MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED IF FUTURE MODEL CYCLES REMAIN CONSISTENT. A DRYING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH SOME ENERGY RETROGRADING INTO MEXICO BUT THE MAIN ENERGY WITH TROUGH PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. THE ECM CONTINUES TO SIMULATE A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAN THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS A FLATTER RIDGE AND DEPICTS A WEAK COL PATTERN. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH FLUCTUATIONS ABOUT NORMAL BEING DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 93 69 92 69 / 20 - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 92 67 91 68 / 20 - - - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 67 90 68 / 20 - - - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 92 66 91 68 / 20 - - - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 92 65 92 66 / 20 10 10 10 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 67 91 68 / 30 10 10 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 90 68 90 69 / 30 10 10 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 68 91 69 / 20 10 10 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 68 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && MESOSCALE/AVIATION...87
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 436 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-260945- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 436 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ALLEN
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:27 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced a wind gust measured at 50 kts at the San Antonio International Airport (KSAT) ASOS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601645.