Weak low pressure near the Savannah River trailed a coastal trough offshore of the local coastline. A large upper level low was over NW Georgia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Weak low pressure near the Savannah River trailed a coastal trough offshore of the local coastline. A large upper level low was over NW Georgia. A few heavy rainfall producing showers and storms developed across NE Florida. Elevated waters levels along the coast were near 0.75 ft above predictions which caused some minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 10:34 AM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1134 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 .UPDATE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1014 MILLIBARS) OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER IN COASTAL GEORGIA...WITH A TRAILING COASTAL TROUGH OVER OUR WATERS. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...WHILE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES IS BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. A FEW MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S AS INSOLATION INCREASES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MARION COUNTY TOWARDS 19Z...DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL BE PUSHING INLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AND THUS ONLY A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD TOWARDS INTERSTATE 10 THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL TO THE LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. && .AVIATION... IFR CIGS AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI ARE QUICKLY DISSOLVING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSERTED A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM AT GNV AROUND 00Z...OTHERWISE VICINITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL CROSS SSI AND SGJ AROUND 17Z...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH CRG AROUND 18Z AND JAX/VQQ FROM 19Z-20Z. SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EVENING WIND SURGE MAY INCREASE ONSHORE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND...EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD ORGANIZE FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME MAY RAISE SEAS UP TOWARDS CAUTION LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RISK WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS AND ONSHORE WINDS. COASTAL IMPACTS: TIDAL DEPARTURES DECREASED TO AROUND 0.75 ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS ANOMALY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE HIGHER EARLY EVENING TIDE CYCLE. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK DURING THE PERIGEAN TIDE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 82 66 87 68 / 10 10 30 20 SSI 80 72 83 73 / 10 10 20 30 JAX 85 70 86 72 / 20 10 20 30 SGJ 83 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 30 GNV 86 69 88 72 / 30 20 30 30 OCF 87 70 89 72 / 30 30 40 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && NELSON/ZIBURA/WALKER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 448 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-260215- COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION- BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION- COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING- WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN- ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 448 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Street flooding due to heavy rainfall impacted Cedar Point Road and Pumpkin Hill Road. There was about 4-8 inches of water over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 599098.