The Mertz wildfire burned many acres in extreme Western Schleicher County. A long period of dry hot weather and abundant fuels created the ideal conditions for this wildfire.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The Mertz wildfire burned many acres in extreme Western Schleicher County. A long period of dry hot weather and abundant fuels created the ideal conditions for this wildfire.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 6, 2:45 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) It will be another cool night, with light winds and clear skies contributing to good radiational cooling conditions. Went closer to the cooler MET MOS temperatures for lows tonight. There will be increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon, however, as an upper low in the Four Corners region digs south in south central New Mexico. Have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon in western Crockett County, otherwise dry during the day Wednesday. With thicker clouds arriving late in the afternoon, GFS MOS highs in the upper 80s to around 90 look good. 04 .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The forecast for the latter half of the work week remains rather difficult as the potential for heavy rainfall looms over west TX. A strong, closed upper-level cyclone will move slowly east- southeast over the Desert Southwest, dropping south into northern Mexico late Thursday before eventually retrograding back to the west over the weekend. The medium range models are actually in pretty good agreement regarding the synoptic pattern through the weekend, but lack consistency with with the mesoscale features. Unfortunately, these mesoscale features will be a significant factor in determining the amount/location of heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday. The GFS keeps most of the lift to our west Thursday and Friday, providing widespread heavy rainfall to the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos region. However, the GEM and ECMWF both continue to develop heavy rainfall over the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. The biggest difference seen between the GFS and the ECMWF is the location of a upper-tropospheric jet streak and the presence of a strong mid-level shortwave trough. The GFS keep both the jet and shortwave trough farther west closer to the core of the upper low. By late Thursday, the ECMWF lifts a compact shortwave trough north across the area right into the mid-level deformation zone. It also develops the jet streak farther east, with the exit region of the jet approaching the northern Edwards Plateau. While the ECMWF rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches seem unreasonable, the drier GFS amounts of less than 1/4 inch look a bit low. The bottom line is that it appears there will be a substantial gradient in the southwest, with less than 1 inch anticipated over the northeast quadrant of the rainfall gradient from southwest to northeast across the CWA. We continue to indicate the potential for 1-3 inches west of a Sweetwater-Junction line, with less than 1 inch to the east. Rain is expected to develop to our west on Wednesday, spreading eastward overnight and increasing in coverage through Thursday night before tapering off on Friday. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be late Thursday and Thursday night. Rain chances taper off from northeast to southwest Friday night, lingering over the southwest quadrant of the CWA on Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area Thursday and Friday, but these numbers are dependent on rainfall developing. All of this depends on the location of mesoscale features that the models are struggling to resolve. Hopefully, we'll have a much better handle on this scenario by this time tomorrow. The forecast looks to remain much more settled Sunday into the early part of next week as the mid-level ridge builds over the south- central CONUS. This should provide mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures for the end of the forecast period. Expect highs well into the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s by early next week. Johnson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 57 88 62 82 / 0 0 20 50 San Angelo 55 90 64 81 / 0 5 20 70 Junction 55 90 64 83 / 0 0 10 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 04/25
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 302 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-072015- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 302 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND WEST OF A SWEETWATER...SAN ANGELO...SONORA LINE. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mertz Wildfire burned an estimated 2250 acres about 13 miles east of Midway or in extreme western Schleicher County just north of U.S. Highway 190.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 604686.