A slow-moving front lingered just southeast of our County Warning Area, leading to the additional development of showers and thunderstorms over our southeastern counties as an upper level disturbance moved overhead. Training thunderstorms led to localized flash flooding across Leon County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A slow-moving front lingered just southeast of our County Warning Area, leading to the additional development of showers and thunderstorms over our southeastern counties as an upper level disturbance moved overhead. Training thunderstorms led to localized flash flooding across Leon County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 7, 3:53 AM CST, 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 353 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... EXTENSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS. BASED ON OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MILAM...ROBERTSON AND LEON COUNTY. WE DO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEPTH OF THE DRIER AIR INCREASES. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WATCH UNTIL 4 PM. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF SOILS WERE NOT ALREADY SATURATED AND RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WE WOULD NOT BE AS CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING WITH SUCH ELEVATED ACTIVITY. WE DO EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO END THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE SHEARS OFF AND MOVES EAST. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER COOL ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A CLEARING SKY AND LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND RESULT IN RAIN-FREE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REGION WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. 79 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ MODELS ARE TOO DRY WITH THE MOISTURE AT THE CRITICAL LEVEL NEAR 650 MB WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGEST AND INSTABILITY GREATEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BREAKING OUT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX IN THIS REGION WHERE QPF IS NOT SEEN IN GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT COINCIDING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH ASSUMES THE MOISTURE WILL IN FACT BE AVAILABLE. THIS MEANS I HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS IN METROPLEX TAFS FROM 7-10Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS FROM NOW THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER SUNRISE. BASED ON RUC/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT 2000FT FROM 13 TO 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15KT. FOR WACO...WILL MAINTAIN BEST CHANCES OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM 9-14Z. MVFR CIGS ARE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 64 47 64 48 65 / 30 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 65 47 64 47 66 / 60 10 5 0 0 PARIS, TX 64 44 62 44 61 / 30 5 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 65 43 63 45 64 / 30 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 64 44 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 64 48 64 48 65 / 30 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 64 47 63 45 64 / 40 5 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 64 47 63 47 65 / 60 5 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 63 47 63 48 64 / 70 10 5 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 45 63 45 66 / 30 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ122-135-145>148- 158>162-174-175. && 82/79
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 251 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071215- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 251 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS TO CANTON LINE. FLASH FLOODING AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM KILLEEN AND HILLSBORO NORTHEAST TO PALESTINE AND CANTON TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO PARIS ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS SATURDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:58 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Leon County Sheriff's Department reported that FM 3 approximately half a mile north of Hilltop Lakes was impassable due to flood waters.
Leon County Sheriff's Department reported that the service road along Interstate 45 just north of TX-OSR was impassable.
Leon County Sheriff's Department reported water over FM 1119 approximately 3 miles south of Centerville, TX. One eastbound lane of Highway 7 just east of FM 1119 was closed due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 607317, 607319, 607323.