Flood and Hail in Texas, June 12, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 215 PM...RADAR DATA SHOWING ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PARMER
AND NORTHERN BAILEY COUNTIES RIGHT WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING LAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A DRYLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN AGITATED CUMULUS
FIELD STRETCHING FROM HERE SOUTH TO HOBBS AS AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF AMARILLO MAY ALSO COME INTO
PLAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR SAGS SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE LED TO AN AXIS
OF SBCAPE OF UP TO 3500 J/KG AS 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40
KNOTS. DISCRETE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...AS WELL AS
TORNADOES AS 0-1 KM HELICITY INCREASES TO 50-100 M2/S2 WITH FAIRLY
LOW LCLS OF 2500-3500 FEET. SHOULD SEE THE PRIMARY THREAT SHIFT TO
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THIS EVENING AS CELLS CONGEAL INTO A
COMPLEX/LINE WITH TIME MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
RIGHT MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY TREKKING EAST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

WHILE THIS INITIAL LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN
BY ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RIDING ATOP RESIDUAL COLD
POOLS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL BE THE POINT AT
WHICH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING MAY BECOME A MUCH LARGER
ISSUE WITH STORMS REGENERATING UPSTREAM OVER PREVIOUSLY RAINED ON
LOCALES.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD HEADLINES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN
AT THIS POINT SATURDAY AS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
DICTATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY PRONOUNCED UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. NONETHELESS...A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT MENTION OF SCATTERED
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH REFINEMENT COMING LATER AFTER EVALUATING
WHAT PLAYS OUT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
THUNDER CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
T-STORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR TWO MCS...WHICH
WILL BRING THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE STABILIZED MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE. NWP SUGGESTS THAT STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THE LIFT FROM THE
PASSING WAVE...AND WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT MAY SAG INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
KEEP T-STORM CHANCES GOING DESPITE RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. STARTING WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WILL EXPAND FROM WEST
AND EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND THE JET STREAM WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE RIDGES MAY PERSIST
ACROSS TX AND NM...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK....WITH AMPLE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS
THE REGION.

TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  82  61  83 /  40  50  60  40
TULIA         64  81  63  82 /  60  50  60  40
PLAINVIEW     64  82  64  83 /  60  50  70  30
LEVELLAND     66  84  64  87 /  50  40  60  40
LUBBOCK       65  84  66  85 /  60  50  60  30
DENVER CITY   67  89  64  90 /  40  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    68  88  65  88 /  40  50  50  40
CHILDRESS     69  85  67  87 / 100  60  60  40
SPUR          68  86  66  87 / 100  50  40  30
ASPERMONT     71  89  69  91 /  90  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TXZ021>044-131700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1146 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE BEFORE MATURING INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...DOWNBURST WINDS
AROUND 75 MPH AND SOME FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A TORNADIC THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP NEAR OR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     WALL CLOUD       MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
06/12/2015                   BAILEY             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOOKING EAST AT STORM APPROACHING PROGRESS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500273

JGD