Hail in Texas, July 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...
GREATEST AVIATION THREAT WILL BE SCT-NUM TS TONIGHT MAINLY AT PVW
AND CDS AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING SE FROM THE WRN
TX PANHANDLE. INSERTED TEMPOS BY 06Z FOR THIS SCENARIO
HIGHLIGHTING GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CIGS. LBB COULD CATCH THE
REMNANTS OF THESE TS BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
IS DRY. ALSO...EARLIER FORECAST FOR LOW CIGS BY SUNRISE IS NO
LONGER LOOKING AS CERTAIN...SO HAVE DOWNPLAYED THIS MENTION SOME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS TOOK A WHILE TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED HEATING ACROSS THE AREA
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 3
PM.  MODELS SHOW THAT WE STILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER THE EXIT REGION
OF THE JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS WELL AS KEEPING BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE.  THERE IS STILL SLOWER
SPEEDS AROUND 700 HPA THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH STORM
MORPHOLOGY. THE 12Z TTU WRF LOOKS TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON
HOW THINGS ARE INITIATING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
DEVELOPS THIS INTO A FAIRLY DECENT MCS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AFTER DARK AND THIS MAY HELP THE MCS TO
PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WHICH RESULTED IN THE
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
 OTHER MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL WITH THE 18Z
NAM...12Z HIRES-ARW...AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IN SOME CASES
DUE SOUTH.  INITIALLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE A WET
MICROBURST/DOWNBURST THREAT AS CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25 INCHES.  THE ONLY WRENCH
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC MACHINERY IS THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  DO
FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PULL IN SOME LOW CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS ANY REMNANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION.  THIS CLOUD COVER MAY TAKE A WHILE TO BURN OFF AND
PRECIPITATION MAY COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION A BIT THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
PUSH CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. JORDAN

LONG TERM...
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LONG TERM. UPPER LOW
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE WORKING NEWD INTO EASTERN
AZ AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING...MOISTURE
AND FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER GIVEN UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE UNDERWAY. NAM IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS COMPARED TO GFS WHICH HAS AXIS
RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WARMING LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WILL REACH THE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH 90+ TEMPS EMERGING ON THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN S
PLAINS/SW PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY WITH NO MENTION OF POPS BY
SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WITH WEAKNESS IN RIDGE POSSIBLE AND NW FLOW ON EASTERN
SIDE OF HIGH ALLOWING FOR A RE-EMERGENCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESP NORTH. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MON-TUE BUT WITH ABDUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE AND STANDING
WATER...FEEL THAT MAY BE A LITTLE AGRESSIVE SO BACKED DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
846 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXZ021>044-100200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
846 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
EXIT THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND BURSTS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS LATE HOUR.