Slow moving thunderstorms produced flash flooding followed by prolonged high water in southern Whitley county during the morning of July 8, 2015.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms produced flash flooding followed by prolonged high water in southern Whitley county during the morning of July 8, 2015.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 7:10 AM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 810 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO HIT THE POPS AND HEAVY RAIN A BIT HARDER IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO TWEAKED T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER THIS MORNING...SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...JUST FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED ALONG THE OH RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO FOCUS IN ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND CORRESPONDING JET MAX MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONE THING GOING FOR THIS SET UP ARE THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PWATS AOA 2 INCHES. SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE AND WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD PEAK HIGHER THAN TODAY AS RAIN STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...AROUND 70 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. HEIGHTS WILL RISE LOCALLY AS THIS RIDGE PASSES...THOUGH THE RISES MAY NOT PREVENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND IMPACTING THE WX FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...DURING THIS WHOLE PROCESS SHORTWAVES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BE A FACTOR IN THE WX FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE MODEL AGREEMENT SUFFERS AS THE GFS BECOMES MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE THAT HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE REGION AS THE NOW SOUTHWEST RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND THE FLOW BUCKLES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS APPEARS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW A TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE MEANS OF MITIGATING ANY DISAGREEMENTS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. A WAVY FRONT WILL HOLD IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND DROPPING JUST TO OUR EAST. ANY OF THESE COULD SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE TRACK WILL KEEP THEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HEIGHTS FALL AND AN UPPER LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST TO THE NORTH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CWA WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND STORM CLUSTERS...BUT MAINLY DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CONVECTION. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY MAINLY TO ACCENTUATE A HEALTHY DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID AGAIN TWEAK THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED ALONG THE OH RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO FOCUS IN ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND CORRESPONDING JET MAX MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONE THING GOING FOR THIS SET UP ARE THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PWATS AOA 2 INCHES. SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE AND WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LIMITING THE DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD PEAK HIGHER THAN TODAY AS RAIN STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...AROUND 70 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A SLOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. HEIGHTS WILL RISE LOCALLY AS THIS RIDGE PASSES...THOUGH THE RISES MAY NOT PREVENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND IMPACTING THE WX FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...DURING THIS WHOLE PROCESS SHORTWAVES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BE A FACTOR IN THE WX FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE MODEL AGREEMENT SUFFERS AS THE GFS BECOMES MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE THAT HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE REGION AS THE NOW SOUTHWEST RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND THE FLOW BUCKLES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS APPEARS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW A TROUGH TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE MEANS OF MITIGATING ANY DISAGREEMENTS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE WARMTH BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. A WAVY FRONT WILL HOLD IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND DROPPING JUST TO OUR EAST. ANY OF THESE COULD SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE TRACK WILL KEEP THEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HEIGHTS FALL AND AN UPPER LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST TO THE NORTH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CWA WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND STORM CLUSTERS...BUT MAINLY DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CONVECTION. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY MAINLY TO ACCENTUATE A HEALTHY DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID AGAIN TWEAK THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT SOME MINOR RIDGE VERSUS VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 MOST TAF SITES WILL BE QUIET THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THESE AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. LATER IN THE FORECAST THE PCPN WILL SCATTER OUT WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GREIF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 408 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091115- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 408 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...OR FLOODING. JVM/GREIF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
859 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM FLASH FLOOD E LOUDEN 36.75N 84.03W
07/08/2015 WHITLEY KY 911 CALL CENTER
A BRIDGE WAS REPROTED TO BE FLOODED ALONG KY HIGHWAY 92.
&&
JPThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:58 UTC.
3 flash flood, 3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of Bethal Road were closed due to flooding with the water reaching four feet deep in some areas.
Highway 92 was not passible due to flash flooding in the eastern part of Whitley County.
Keswick Road was closed due to flash flooding.
Kentucky 92 was flooded and not passable for a long period of time in the eastern part of the county not far from the Bell county line.
Flash flooding transitioned to aerial flooding on Keswick Road, which lasted into the afternoon hours. The road was closed during this time.
Flash flooding on Bethal Road transitioned to aerial flooding, which lasted into the afternoon. The water was up to four feet deep over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 583853, 597503, 597505, 583854, 597506, 597508.