The drought expanded from Abilene and Taylor County to the north and northeast and also across the Northwest Hill Country. Lack of appreciable rain led to this development as lake levels continue to be quite low in much of West Central Texas.
Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The drought expanded from Abilene and Taylor County to the north and northeast and also across the Northwest Hill Country. Lack of appreciable rain led to this development as lake levels continue to be quite low in much of West Central Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1115 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Most West Central TX forecast terminals are reporting MVFR ceilings as of 05z, but conditions should deteriorate overnight with most areas dropping into IFR (with ceilings under 1000 ft). Scattered showers will affect KSJT, KABI, and KSOA early this morning, but confidence is too low to mention elsewhere. Otherwise, expect patchy fog/drizzle to restrict visibilities at times. Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, shifting to the north as a cold front moves across the area during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will be gusty through around 00z, eventually subsiding after sunset. Ceilings will rapidly improve behind this front with VFR conditions expected areawide by mid- afternoon. Johnson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ UPDATE... Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the entire area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible across the Northern Edwards Plateau. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions. The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area. However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally 700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds will prevail in the wake of this front. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Sunday ) Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an Abilene... Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso, moving slowly southeast. Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model's convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso. A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today's, despite cold air advection. LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid 60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However, this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and increasing moisture are expected. Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to Brownwood. This afternoon's numerical models have once again shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east, reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip- flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 51 24 51 36 / 40 10 5 5 5 San Angelo 51 60 27 54 36 / 30 10 5 5 5 Junction 52 64 30 55 34 / 40 20 5 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 25
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 222 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-012030- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 222 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated Taylor County was in a severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated the east and south part of Jones County was in a severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated all of Haskell County was in a severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated most of Throckmorton County was in a severe drought, while the extreme east part of the county was in extreme drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated most of Shackelford County was in a severe drought, while the extreme northeast part of the county was in extreme drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated the northern part of Callahan County was in a severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated the southeast half of Sutton County was in a severe drought, while the a small part of the county in the southeast was in extreme drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated most of Kimble County was in extreme drought, while the northwest part of the county was in severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated the drought in Mason County ranged from severe in the north to extreme across the south.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated San Saba County was in a severe drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated the southeast corner of McCulloch County was in a severe drought.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 569090, 569092, 569093, 569096, 569097, 569098, 569100, 569103, 569106, 569108, 569121.