Wildfire in Texas, December 26 to 27, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN
AT KGUY FIRST...THEN KDHT...AND EVENTUALLY KAMA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE FROM THIS EVENING
ON WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALSO
UPDATED THE HWO PRODUCT TO CLARIFY DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN PERIOD SNOW
AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND LOCATION FOR HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEED AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL GET HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE AMA TAF
SITE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS FALLING INTO THE
LIFR RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
TODAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR WEST TEXAS BY TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND THEN
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z TODAY...AND THEN 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AS BLIZZARD
HIGHLIGHTS/HEADLINES BEGIN BY 00Z SUNDAY AND FEEL TOO CONFUSING GIVEN
THAT WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN WELL ADVERTISED ALREADY.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SNOW OR SLEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ANY
WINTRY MIX WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM...AND UKMET IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS OR SO BY 12Z
OR 18Z SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME TIMING ISSUES...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AROUND THE
CONCHO VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN OR EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
I-40 CORRIDOR OR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE RECEIVING THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 INCHES OR SO POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF DRYING BEFORE ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

9/2

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
542 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-262200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
542 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALSO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO
AN INCH WITH ONLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55
TO 60 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS VALUES
BELOW ZERO RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
STRONG NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.