A strong upper level low pressure system moved from the desert southwest into the Southern Plains in late December. Unseasonably moist air was in place across the region ahead of this approaching system as Pacific moisture in the mid and upper levels combined with very moist air in the low levels from the Gulf of Mexico.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
A strong upper level low pressure system moved from the desert southwest into the Southern Plains in late December. Unseasonably moist air was in place across the region ahead of this approaching system as Pacific moisture in the mid and upper levels combined with very moist air in the low levels from the Gulf of Mexico. Strong atmospheric lift from the approaching upper level low and a warm front moving across the area, combined with this moisture, resulted in widespread locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather. Widespread eight to ten inches of rain fell across northwest Arkansas with locally up to a foot recorded. Widespread and significant flooding occurred across the area as a result. Daily rainfall records were broken during this event in Fort Smith and Fayetteville. This heavy rain event to end the month of December also resulted in it being the wettest December on record at Fort Smith with 10.81 inches observed during the month, and at Fayetteville where 10.95 inches fell.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 26, 5:16 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
516 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail at all sites
this evening as thunderstorms associated with a cold front move
through the region. Strong gusty winds will be associated with
any thunderstorms and strong gusty northerly winds will move in
behind the front. Thunderstorm activity will diminish tonight,
however, widespread heavy rainfall will continue throughout the
remainder of the 24 hour forecast period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Tornado watch number 569 currently encompasses all of southeast OK
and west central AR...and is in effect until 8 pm this evening.
Late this afternoon...a surface low was analyzed near Okfuskee county
with a cold front extending into south central OK and a warm front
draped east near the I-40 corridor. A few breaks in the cloud
cover across the warm sector will contribute to pockets of greater
instability in an incredibly moist airmass (surface dewpoints
around 70F...which is remarkable for this time of year). Bulk
shear values around 50-60 kts and impressive low-level helicity
will remain favorable for rotating thunderstorms (and possible
tornadoes) the remainder of the afternoon and into the early
evening before the cold front pushes through the most of the
forecast area.
While the threat of severe weather will lessen overnight...the
threat for additional heavy rainfall and flooding will persist
through the remainder of the weekend. Deep layer moisture will
remain incredibly impressive...with forecast PWs around 1.5 to
1.75 inches across southeast OK through western AR. Exit-region
jet dynamics ahead of the approaching upper low along with the
anomalously high PWs will remain favorable for several periods of
moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through the
weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected to focus near and north
of a strengthening baroclinic boundary that should setup across
far southeast OK and western AR late tonight through Sunday.
Overall forecast rainfall amounts haven't changed much...with a
swath of 6 to 9 inches possible from southeast OK through
northwest AR...and 4 to 7 inches across much of northeast OK with
locally higher amounts possible. Flooding/flash flooding is
expected on the already saturate soils...with eventual significant
mainstem river flooding expected as well. Disastrous and life
threatening flooding is a distinct possibility.
The strong upper low and associated surface low will eventually
lift northeast through the area on Monday...with precipitation
coming to an end later in the day. Model timing of the upper low
is in reasonable agreement...although the actual path of the upper
system still remains in question. The SREF remains the farthest
west with the GEM the farthest east. This forecast will lean
toward the ECMWF/UKMET...which offers a reasonable compromise.
Low-thermal fields may become just cold enough to support some
light freezing rain or perhaps some sleet over far western Osage
and Pawnee counties late Sunday night...but confidence is this
remains quite low. The better chance of wintry precipitation may
come on Monday as the main upper low ejects across the area. For
now...will have some light snow and sleet mainly for parts of
northeast OK...with only minor accumulations. That said...it's not
uncommon to get a "surprise" beneath a strong upper low...so we'll
certainly continue to watch this very closely.
The forecast for next week looks seasonally chilly/cold...but
mostly dry. A fast moving upper wave could bring a small chance of
light snow mainly to northeast OK mainly Tuesday night.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for OKZ049-053>076.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
&&
AVIATION...06HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 507 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271130- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 507 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT UNFOLDING... ...TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING STORMS... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. TORNADO. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GROVE TO MCALESTER. ONSET...ONGOING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...SIGNIFICANT. AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. ONSET...ONGOING. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...CRITICAL. AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST UNSTABLE. A SECONDARY AREA OF TORNADIC CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS PENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADS. THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN INTENSE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RAPID RUNOFF CAUSING MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS TO FLOOD. HISTORIC FLOODING LEVELS MAY BE REACHED ON LARGER RIVERS...AND GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FLOODING...LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING...AND LIKELY INTENSIFYING...ON SUNDAY. DANGEROUS RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED. REMEMBER TO AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY HOWEVER ANY SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0457 PM HAIL MUSKOGEE 35.75N 95.37W
12/26/2015 E1.00 INCH MUSKOGEE OK NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
PBSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
OKZ067-070-071-270015-
MUSKOGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-WAGONER OK-
524 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER
AND CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...
AT 524 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STIDHAM...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MUSKOGEE... EUFAULA...
FORT GIBSON... CHECOTAH...
WARNER... OKAY...
WEBBERS FALLS... OKTAHA...
BRAGGS... COUNCIL HILL...
RENTIESVILLE... STIDHAM...
GREENLEAF STATE PARK... LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...
VIVIAN... KEEFETON...
RAIFORD... WAINWRIGHT...
SUMMIT... HITCHITA...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 244 AND
279.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
LAT...LON 3547 9585 3546 9582 3549 9582 3555 9574
3555 9572 3557 9571 3589 9527 3587 9524
3585 9523 3582 9527 3581 9521 3556 9513
3525 9561 3523 9567 3520 9568 3519 9574
3518 9576 3520 9579 3541 9588 3545 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 227DEG 45KT 3538 9572SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 530 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 OKZ071-073-270015- PITTSBURG OK-MCINTOSH OK- 530 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST... AT 530 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... EUFAULA... CANADIAN... INDIANOLA... HANNA... STIDHAM... VIVIAN... LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK... RAIFORD... PIERCE... ONAPA... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 263. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LAT...LON 3501 9580 3509 9599 3553 9573 3541 9541 TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 213DEG 46KT 3512 9585
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0623 PM TSTM WND DMG WATTS 36.11N 94.57W
12/26/2015 ADAIR OK LAW ENFORCEMENT
A FEW TREES DOWN IN WATTS
&&
CKHSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
707 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
ARZ001-010-OKZ068-069-270200-
WASHINGTON AR-BENTON AR-ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
707 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND CENTRAL ADAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...
AT 707 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE... SILOAM SPRINGS...
STILWELL... FARMINGTON...
LINCOLN... WESTVILLE...
WATTS... SPRINGTOWN...
ADAIR STATE PARK... PROCTOR...
MARYETTA... CINCINNATI...
BARON... ELDON...
CHRISTIE... VINEY GROVE...
SAVOY... BALLARD...
WEDINGTON... LAKE FRANCIS...
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3628 9443 3607 9422 3572 9481 3586 9495
3616 9458 3616 9456 3617 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 230DEG 34KT 3585 9482
69PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM FLASH FLOOD OKAY 35.85N 95.32W
12/26/2015 WAGONER OK BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT OF DEEP WATER ACROSS OKLAHOMA HIGHWAY 16 NEAR OKAY
&&
CKHThe Tulsa radar (KINX), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:28 UTC.
35 flood, 5 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall flooded Leonard Ranch Road. A swift water rescue was conducted after a vehicle was driven into the flood water.
Pumpkin Hollow Road north of Bentonville was closed due to flooding.
Highways 43 and 102 were closed due to flooding.
Rocky Dale Hollow, Falling Springs, Prichard and Big Springs Roads were closed due to flooding.
Flooding was reported on Highway 102 east of Decatur.
Strong thunderstorm wind pushed a detached garage off its foundation, snapped several trees, and moved a stock trailer approximately 20 feet.
Numerous roads across the county were flooded and impassable, most notably west of Highway 59 and north of Highway 102.
Portions of Highway 252 east of Lavaca were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 255 east of Barling were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 282 north of Alma were closed due to flooding.
Highway 23 north of Eureka Springs was closed due to flooding.
Highway 264 west of Cave Springs was closed due to flooding.
Highway 16 west of Fayetteville was closed due to flooding.
Highway 282 southwest of Mountainburg was closed due to flooding.
Highway 96 east of Lavaca was closed due to flooding.
Highway 252 southeast of Lavaca was closed due to flooding.
Highway 255 northeast of Central City was closed due to flooding.
Numerous roads were reported closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 16 west of Fayetteville were closed due to flooding.
Highway 282 southwest of Rudy was closed due to flooding.
Highway 23 southwest of Cass was closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 23 near Turners Bend were closed due to flooding.
Several streets in town were flooded and impassable.
Several streets in and around town were flooded and impassable.
Several roads were closed due to flooding.
Several streets were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 96 were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 187 near the Beaver Bridge were closed due to flooding.
A section of Highway 220 was closed due to rock slide.
Javellow Road was closed near Brush Creek due to flooding.
Ball Street in Johnson was closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 255 in Fort Smith were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 220 were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 309 near Highway 23 south of Ozark was closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 288 near Highway 23 south of Ozark were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 41 near Highway 22 south of Cecil were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 22 in Fort Smith were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 96 were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 252 east of Lavaca were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 255 east of Barling were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Highway 187 near the Beaver Bridge remained closed due to continued flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611133, 611135, 611136, 611138, 611139, 611140, 611141, 611142, 611286, 611287, 611288, 611297, 611298, 611299, 611300, 611301, 611302, 611303, 611304, 611323, 611324, 611325, 611329, 611330, 611331, 611332, 611333, 611334, 611358, 611359, 611362, 611363, 611398, 611401, 611402, 611404, 611405, 611406, 611407, 611408, and more.