A couple thunderstorms developed in a weakly unstable air mass producing just enough wind energy to down a few trees in the lake way area of Central East Tennessee.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A couple thunderstorms developed in a weakly unstable air mass producing just enough wind energy to down a few trees in the lake way area of Central East Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 2:16 PM EST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 316 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLATEAU ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...WAVE MOVES EAST...BUT ANOTHER MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM IS ON IT'S HEALS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COMBINED TO RE-DEVELOP SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY EARLY THUSRDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LACKING...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A NARROW RANGE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUITE A BIT HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION. THIS WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY SHOWING. THURSDAY NIGHT WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW STAYS IN POSITION THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AREA-WIDE...MOSTLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS NOW SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PULLING IN HURRICANE JOAQUIN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DRAWING IT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NOT GET INTO SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT AND EVOLVE OVERTIME AS SCENARIOS LIKE THIS DON'T OCCUR VERY OFTEN. THE SITUATION IS FURTHER MUDDLED BY THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS JOAQUIN WELL OFF THE COAST AND NEVER MERGE THE TWO FEATURES. IF THESE SYSTEMS MERGE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LEANING TOWARD MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. SO BASED ON THE GFS...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH OUR EASTERN MOST AREAS BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST AREAS BASED ON THE FEATURES MERGING...ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD POSE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OUR RIVERS. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DATA AS THINGS COULD MOST CERTAINLY CHANGE. SUNDAY THE LOW IS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND STILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. SUNDAY QPF AMOUNTS LOOK MUCH LOWER THOUGH. STILL SOME RAIN CHANCES IN ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RIDGING HAS BUILT IN AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 70 58 65 / 30 70 60 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 69 57 64 / 40 60 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 68 56 64 / 40 60 70 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 69 55 62 / 60 70 70 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && DH/SR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-011930- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 330 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 /230 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND MERGER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LIE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. IF THESE FEATURES MERGE...ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
403 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
TNZ013-014-036>038-069-302045-
KNOX TN-CAMPBELL TN-ANDERSON TN-CLAIBORNE TN-GRAINGER TN-UNION TN-
403 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX...CAMPBELL...ANDERSON...
CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
AT 402 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
HARROGATE-SHAWANEE TO NEAR MAYNARDVILLE TO NEAR CLINTON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...CLINTON...MAYNARDVILLE...NEW TAZEWELL...TAZEWELL...
PLAINVIEW...HARROGATE-SHAWANEE...STRAWBERRY PLAINS...HALLS...
BLAINE...LAKE CITY...NORRIS...LUTTRELL...MALONEYVILLE...BUFFALO
SPRINGS...WHITE OAK...LONE MOUNTAIN...SANDLICK...ARTHUR AND
FINCASTLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 8355 3621 8356 3614 8362 3614 8364
3612 8363 3610 8365 3612 8365 3612 8368
3608 8366 3609 8371 3606 8368 3596 8376
3609 8422 3628 8411 3659 8403 3658 8369
3660 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 282DEG 17KT 3651 8389 3629 8387 3610 8406
AMP.23SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
450 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
TNZ013>015-037>039-069-070-073-302130-
KNOX TN-NORTH SEVIER TN-JEFFERSON TN-CAMPBELL TN-HAMBLEN TN-
CLAIBORNE TN-GRAINGER TN-UNION TN-HANCOCK TN-
450 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX...NORTH SEVIER...JEFFERSON...
CAMPBELL...HAMBLEN...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...UNION...AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
AT 450 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARROGATE-SHAWANEE TO 6 MILES EAST OF MAYNARDVILLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF
KNOXVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...MORRISTOWN...SEVIERVILLE...JEFFERSON CITY...DANDRIDGE...
MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...NEW TAZEWELL...BEAN STATION...TAZEWELL...
WHITE PINE...PLAINVIEW...NEW MARKET...BANEBERRY...
HARROGATE-SHAWANEE...STRAWBERRY PLAINS...HALLS...BLAINE...LUTTRELL
AND KODAK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3660 8337 3639 8327 3638 8329 3635 8326
3632 8328 3628 8323 3630 8323 3623 8320
3580 8340 3599 8410 3603 8406 3611 8404
3619 8394 3623 8398 3630 8395 3659 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 278DEG 17KT 3649 8378 3627 8369 3599 8383
AMP.23The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:15 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were reported down between Blaine and Rutledge.
A few trees were reported down near Cherokee Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597847, 597848.