A warm front pushed through West Tennessee during the morning hours with moist and unstable air spreading over the region. An upper level disturbance moving through triggered numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on May 15, 2015.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A warm front pushed through West Tennessee during the morning hours with moist and unstable air spreading over the region. An upper level disturbance moving through triggered numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on May 15, 2015. The first round of storms produced isolated damaging winds and flash flooding in McNairy County. Later that evening another upper level disturbance triggered a second round of showers and thunderstorm with isolated wind damage in Hardin County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:22 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 322 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT FROM THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO BEGIN MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SETTING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. IT MAY BE FALLING APART AT THAT TIME BUT STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT AT LEAST NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIE OUT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. HOWEVER BY 8-9 AM...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AROUND SUNRISE...ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DYING OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA AND FROM THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DUE TO ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LINE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE DYING PHASE AS IT PUSHES IN BUT IT SHOULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE DYING OUT. THE REST OF SUNDAY MAY BE TRANQUIL WEATHER WISE. HIGHS MAY JUMP BACK INTO THE MID 80S AS A RESULT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT WHAT EXACTLY IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TO BE SLOWING UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER THEY BOTH INDICATE THAT ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY STILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LINE THEN WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD THINK THIS LINE WOULD ALSO BE IN THE DYING PHASES AS IT MOVES IN. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY SETTING OFF REDEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS THAT MONDAY MAY BE QUIET AFTER INITIAL LINE DIES OUT AS FRONT MAY BE STILL LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE GFS IS KIND OF IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH POPS FOR MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONSBUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. KRM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. GOOD SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS AND TSRAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED OVER TEXAS...MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. TIMING OF SHRA/TSRAS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE BEYOND 6 HRS IS LOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SLIGHTLY LESS OVERNIGHT. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161045- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JCL
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:59 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked down a few trees on Winding Ridge Road. Trees blocked the road temporarily.
Heavy rain washed out a private road just off Bud Cleary Road.
Straight line winds knocked down trees throughout Hardin County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 572444, 572445, 572446.