Damaging Wind in South Dakota, September 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED. FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

WEAK CONVECTION OVER CLEAR LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF INTO
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL WEAK/SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT...THE DISORGANIZATION LIKELY OWING TO A LACK OF STRONG
FORCING ALOFT. THIS AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ADDITIONAL MORE
ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE JET WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWA. A WAVE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WEST RIVER...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY BELOW
10KFT...WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT...SUGGESTING SCATTERED
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTING STRIKE. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CWA THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A RATHER
PROMINENT QPF BULLSEYE WEST RIVER INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES FRIDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROF...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A
SHARED ENERGY AREA AND Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE
A DRY NORTHEAST FETCH...WHICH WILL LIMIT QPF/POPS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND +5C BY THAT POINT...SO
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP 60F.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN GETS QUICKLY PUSHED EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND
LOOKS TO FINALLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE MODELS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
70S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
421 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-170930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
421 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 /321 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND BRING
SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TMT