An unstable airmass developed over southeast South Carolina before a series of upper level disturbances shifted over the area and resulted in a few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds.
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The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
An unstable airmass developed over southeast South Carolina before a series of upper level disturbances shifted over the area and resulted in a few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 10:00 AM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD FOCUS MORE INLAND TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. UPPER DIVERGENCE INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCES LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND...COOLEST NEAR CHARLESTON. THE MAIN HAZARD LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL NEED TO KEEP 20-40 PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...AS THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT UPPER LEVELS....THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WENT LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THEN INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE FATE OF ERIKA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATER MONDAY...THEN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ERIKA IN OUR AREA DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN ASSUMING ERIKA MOVES WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY THEN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCHS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE LOW WHETHER IMPACTS WILL BE AT THE TERMS...ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR KSAV. WILL CARRY TEMPO 4SM -TSRA AT KSAV 18-21Z FOR NOW. TSRA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO KCHS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...THE FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE LATEST TRACK FROM NHC BRINGS ERIKA TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS... ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ASSUMING THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF CLOSEST APPROACH OF ERIKA. ALSO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE ERIKA TRACKS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA. && .MARINE... TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST TODAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. SPEEDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...VEERING TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS ERIKA APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY. HAVE STARTED TO TREND WINDS AND SEAS UP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPED WINDS AT 30 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS 10-15 FEET...MAINLY OFFSHORE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THIS EVENING...CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS COULD PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE...IT IS POSSIBLE TIDES MAY FALL JUST SHORT AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN THIS KIND OF REGIME. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD STILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. TRENDS SUGGEST TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FORT PULASKI AND THE GEORGIA COAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITHOUT ANY EFFECTS FROM ERIKA...EXTRA- TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES REACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE MAJOR HIGH TIDES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR PUSHING TIDE LEVELS HIGHER...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TIDES ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 447 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 SCZ048>051-280900- BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER- 447 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOODING...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING...A PERIOD OF ELEVATED HIGH TIDES IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. RESIDENT AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AMZ330-350-352-354-374-280900- CHARLESTON HARBOR- WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY- WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 447 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 NM OR LESS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. RESIDENT AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052- 280900- JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS- INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH- ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY- INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY- 447 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. RESIDENT AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. GAZ117-119-139-141-280900- COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH- 447 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING...A PERIOD OF ELEVATED HIGH TIDES IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCE OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. RESIDENT AND VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
SCZ048-271745-
BEAUFORT SC-
114 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...
AT 113 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BLUFFTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HILTON HEAD ISLAND...BLUFFTON...ROSE
HILL...CALAWASSIE ISLAND AND PRITCHARDVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3225 8098 3234 8084 3223 8067 3211 8082
3211 8083 3212 8082 3212 8084 3211 8084
3208 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 039DEG 10KT 3223 8082
JRLThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree and several large branches were reported down along Buck Island Road.
A trained spotter reported penny size hail at the intersection of Highway 278 and Malphrus Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 593388, 593387.