A strong thunderstorm brought torrential rains and a report of an earth slide near Shawville, in Clearfield County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A strong thunderstorm brought torrential rains and a report of an earth slide near Shawville, in Clearfield County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:08 AM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 308 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... HEAVY SHRA/TSRA FIRING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AT NOSE OF LL JET AS OF 06Z. HIGH PWATS AND TRAINING CELLS POSE AT THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BTWN 06Z-09Z. HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS LL JET AND ASSOC CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY ARND DAWN. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT CAT TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MUCH LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHERN PA AND THE N TIER. TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH FROM 06Z READINGS DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY NOW COVERING THE AREA. EXPECT MIN TEMPS ARND 70F ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE SHOULD HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN...LEAVING CENTRAL PA IN A REGION OF WEAK LG SCALE FORCING. EXPECT A DRY MORNING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...HEATING OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SPAWN SCT PM CONVECTION...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY ALONG AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS OVER EASTERN PA. ARRIVAL OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOC WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. MODEL CAPES ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE SEE IN PA...BTWN 3000-5000 J/KG SAT AFTN. HIGH CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR IMPLIES A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLD PULSE TYPE SVR STORMS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN MGRL RISK. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 85 TO 90. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD CREATE HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AS 850HPA TEMPS RISE TO +2SD BY SUNDAY AFTN. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO CLIMB...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100F /BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/ IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL PA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WX. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE /SLIGHTLY/ COOLER AND THERE WILL BE A RESPITE FROM THE MUGGINESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVERHEAD LATE NEXT WEEK...BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL PA NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ACTIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EARLIER...STORMS MOVED THROUGH KBFD AND KUNV. THE NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF KBFD AND NORTH OF KAOO. KUNV AND EVENTUALLY KIPT WILL AGAIN BE AFFECTED BY A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WITH AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SEEN CIGS DROP INTO MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST IMPACTED HAS BEEN KUNV...BUT BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER...KAOO AND KJST COULD ALSO GET INTO THE SHRA/TSRA ACTION. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURNING BY 13Z-15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OUTLOOK... SUN...SCT...MAINLY PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSRA LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TUE-WED...IMPROVING CONDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KBFD OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE LONG-LINE DUE TO AN FAA COMMS PROBLEM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...JUNG/TYBURSKI EQUIPMENT...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 619 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-181030- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN- SOUTHERN CLINTON- 619 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-181030- JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 619 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015
PAZ010-180345-
ELK PA-
1054 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELK COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...
AT 1054 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PORTLAND MILLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...RIDGWAY...ST. MARYS...BRANDY
CAMP...BROCKPORT...PORTLAND MILLS AND KERSEY.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4148 7895 4147 7848 4125 7862 4125 7865
4122 7865 4120 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874
4126 7873 4136 7895 4137 7897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 283DEG 23KT 4139 7892
DANGELOSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
PAZ019-026>028-050-180830-
MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SNYDER PA-HUNTINGDON PA-
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
AT 354 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR REEDS GAP STATE PARK TO NEAR BELLEVILLE TO NEAR
SPRUCE CREEK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTINGDON...LEWISTOWN...ALFARATA...ALLENSVILLE...BEAVER SPRINGS...
BELLEVILLE...BELLTOWN...BLACKLOG...BURNHAM...HIGHLAND PARK...JUNIATA
TERRACE...MCCLURE...MCALEVYS FORT...MCALISTERVILLE...MILROY...REEDS
GAP STATE PARK...REEDSVILLE...SEVEN MOUNTAINS...STRODES MILLS AND
WALNUT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY.
&&
LAT...LON 4050 7815 4057 7813 4053 7818 4059 7818
4063 7785 4083 7753 4075 7702 4054 7740
4036 7765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 287DEG 28KT 4077 7751 4061 7776 4056 7818
JUNGSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
PAZ027-028-050-056-180915-
MIFFLIN PA-JUNIATA PA-SNYDER PA-PERRY PA-
430 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...SNYDER...AND
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM EDT...
AT 429 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCCLURE TO NEAR MEXICO TO NEAR STRODES MILLS
TO NEAR MOUNT UNION...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISTOWN...ALFARATA...BEAVER SPRINGS...BELLTOWN...BLACKLOG...EAST
RUTHERFORD...FREMONT...HONEY GROVE...ICKESBURG...JUNIATA TERRACE...
LOYSVILLE...MCCLURE...MCALISTERVILLE...MEISERVILLE...MEXICO...MOUNT
PLEASANT MILLS...NEW BLOOMFIELD...NEWPORT...PAXTONVILLE AND PERULACK.
LAT...LON 4032 7773 4038 7775 4036 7782 4041 7791
4050 7782 4052 7782 4063 7750 4082 7746
4084 7740 4081 7735 4082 7731 4076 7694
4070 7693 4064 7695 4058 7701 4043 7704
4035 7739 4025 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 293DEG 16KT 4075 7735 4056 7735 4049 7763 4045
7785
JUNGThe State College radar (KCCX), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:29 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flash flooding and an earth slide near the intersection of Stiner Road and Shawville Croft Highway, Route 879. Both lanes of the road was closed for a time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 594190.