A weak warm front draped across central Pennsylvania from an occluded area of low pressure over Lake Huron. Decent low-level lapse rates combined with sufficient shear to produce strong thunderstorms across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A weak warm front draped across central Pennsylvania from an occluded area of low pressure over Lake Huron. Decent low-level lapse rates combined with sufficient shear to produce strong thunderstorms across the area. One long-lived cell produced quarter-sized hail near Bald Eagle and a rotating wall cloud south of State College.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 12:17 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 117 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE. CLOUDY SKIES HAVE REDUCED THE OVERALL DAYTIME MAX TEMPS...AND THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WAVES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AS THESE PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. STILL LOOKING AT LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS LESSENED. GIVEN THIS AND THE REDUCED TEMPERATURES SPC HAS REDUCED CENTRAL PA TO A MARGINAL OUTLOOK. STILL DECENT MEAN CAPES AND THOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LESS OF AN ISSUE...THERE REMAINS DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUICK DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...WHICH WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD THREAT... STORM CELL MBE VECTORS WILL BE VERY SHORT...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. PWATS REACH INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE. THUS...WHILE BASIN AVERAGES OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT COULD HOLD A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...FFGS ARE PRETTY HIGH IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND MOVE MOST OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LINGER HIGH CHC POPS INTO THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FAR SERN COS...THOUGH. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SO A MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A LITTLE CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE WED MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO 80F IN THE S...BUT KEEP AT OR BELOW 70F IN THE FAR NW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS WILL END OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PW AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM WED NGT THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE N. ATLC OCEAN...WHICH WILL ENSURE DRY WX DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A LOW RISK OF A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN ALLEGHENY MTNS. WED/THU NIGHTS WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE NRN TIER. 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL PA IS CURRENTLY NEAR/AT THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR /JULY 11-20/ BASED ON THE MOST RECENT 30-YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F OVER THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY SUN- MON WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 90F. THE UPSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO TREND FROM QUASI-ZONAL ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY TOWARD MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GENERAL TROUGHING LKLY TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF NOAM. NRN STREAM S/WVS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT- SUN. A BETTER FOCUS FOR PCPN SHOULD EVOLVE INTO THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS TO LIFT BY LATE AM...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE PM HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN SPOTS. OUTLOOK... WED...EARLY AM LOW CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-150730- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN- SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE. PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-150730- CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
PAZ004>006-141930-
WARREN PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN...MCKEAN...AND POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...
AT 232 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LUDLOW...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WETMORE AROUND 235 PM EDT.
WESTLINE AROUND 245 PM EDT.
MARSHBURG AROUND 250 PM EDT.
CYCLONE AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 255 PM EDT.
REW AROUND 300 PM EDT.
SMETHPORT AROUND 305 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CERES...CLARENDON...
ELDRED...LEWIS RUN AND MOUNT JEWETT.
LAT...LON 4200 7801 4189 7789 4163 7903 4180 7912
4200 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 250DEG 44KT 4175 7898
KEARNSThe State College radar (KCCX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:50 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees along SR 321 south of Bliss Hill.
Thunderstorms producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees near Kane.
Quarter-sized hail reported near Bald Eagle on I-99.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 579576, 579574, 579573.