An upper trough produced convective showers across Northwest Oregon, and a Funnel cloud was observed near McMinnville.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
An upper trough produced convective showers across Northwest Oregon, and a Funnel cloud was observed near McMinnville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 2:26 PM PST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 PM PST MON NOV 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE NORTHERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TUESDAY...REINFORCED
SLIGHTLY BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH SOME SNOW IN THE CASCADES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OUR WEEKEND HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY.
THE MAIN AREA OF COLD AIR AND VORTICITY WAS IN CALIFORNIA... BUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THIS SPLITTING TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MINOR INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS FAIRLY LOW WET BULB TEMPS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME DECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME
WITH SMALL HAIL...AS WELL AS A A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MODEL QPFS
SUPPORT A BIT OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN SETTLE DOWN. SNOW LEVELS
WILL HOVER AROUND 4000 FEET TODAY...POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
HERE AND THERE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CROSSING 50N/130W THAT THE
MODELS SHOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT THIS TO KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY
COVERAGE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS IS
MUCH MORE STABLE ON TUESDAY...SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF THUNDER ON
TUESDAY. SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES CLOSE TO PASS
ELEVATIONS THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
A BIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS BUNCH OF MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT AROUND 35N/160W. THE MODELS
SAY THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES OUR AREA DESPITE THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONT MOVING IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR BEGINS SAGGING SOUTH WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING TODAY IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE POCKETS OF
IFR CIGS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
TONIGHT...AND CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
HIGH MVFR OR LOW VFR OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC IS BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW IN RESPONSE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 TO 23 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH TUE
MORNING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TUE EVENING AND WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT THRU THU EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH GFS FASTER. HEDGED TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS DEVELOPING LATE FRI.
W-NW SWELL BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS
TODAY. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 12 TO 14 FT THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
THEM TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 FT LATE TUE. AFTER A PERIOD OF MORE
BENIGN CONDITIONS...GUIDANCE SHOWS W-NW 15 FT SWELL DEVELOPING OVER
THE WEEKEND. PYLE/WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
PST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
PST TUESDAY.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1043 AM PST MON NOV 02 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 AM FLOOD ROSBURG 46.33N 123.63W
10/31/2015 WAHKIAKUM WA OFFICIAL NWS OBS
GRAYS RIVER NEAR ROSBURG REACHED FLOOD STAGE /12.0 FT/
OCT 31 AT 1230 PM PDT / 1930Z. IT CRESTED AT 14.7 FT OCT
31 AT 415 PM PDT / 2315Z. IT DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE
NOV 1 AT 1215 AM PDT / 0715Z.
&&
ABRYANTThe Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:00 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A funnel Cloud was observed near the Evergreen Vineyards in McMinnville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608628.