A severe thunderstorm developed near the eastern boundary of Josephine county. Heavy rain, local flooding and large hail was reported with this storm.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A severe thunderstorm developed near the eastern boundary of Josephine county. Heavy rain, local flooding and large hail was reported with this storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 4:12 PM PST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 512 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AROUND 130W. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE REX BLOCK THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER LOW AND BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE NAM IS SHOWING MAXIMUM CAPE OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY TO BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER. THIS WAVE SPREADS INSTABILITY TO THE EASTSIDE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY ARE LESS THAN TODAY. MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COME STARTING MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES COME ON SHORE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL. THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO ZONAL. THE SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUES BUT JUST WHERE THEY WILL COME ON SHORE IS DIFFICULT TO SAY. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MEDIUM- RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE EC AND THE GFS BOTH START OFF WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AND A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE. WILL GO WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE EC LOCATES A WEAKER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE GFS DIGS A STRONGER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH MODELS STILL SHOW UNSTABLE CONDITIONS... PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WOULD EXPECT THE EC TO BE WETTER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER ONE ON THIS DAY. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE EC HAS THE WEAKER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WHILE THE GFS HAS A STRONGER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH SHOW NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THE EC IS NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE EC WEAKENS THE LOW IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WHILE THE GFS MOVES A STRONGER LOW INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THE EC SOLUTION IS MORE STABLE OVER THE MEDFORD CWA WITH DRY NORTHEAST FLOW...WHILE THE GFS ROTATES SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE CWA...PROMOTING A MORE UNSTABLE SHOWERY SCENARIO. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...SO CAN ONLY EVALUATE THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS ON THURSDAY BUT ALL SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. ALL THAT IS OUT THE WINDOW BY FRIDAY HOWEVER...AS THE MEMBERS SHOW GREAT VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW...AND IT ONLY GETS WORSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...WHAT TO DO? THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE ON UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END ON SUNDAY. IN BETWEEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY EMPHASIZING A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AND PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONE THING THE EXTENDED MODELS DO AGREE ON...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY...RISING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES BY SATURDAY. THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY IS MURKIER...BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. JRS && .AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KT THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL EASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. INLAND, FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE CASCADES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY VFR, THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL. VFR PREVAILS EAST OF THE CASCADES... SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS EVEN LATER THAN THAT OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE. SPILDE && .MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT, SUNDAY, 31 MAY 2015...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD INLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALES LIKELY BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE IN THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. MAS/JRS/JBL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 613 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ORZ024-028-010145- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- 613 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY... AT 612 PM PDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WILLIAMS...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF GRANTS PASS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GRANTS PASS...CATHEDRAL HILLS TRAILS...MERLIN...WILLIAMS...GRAYBACK MOUNTAIN TRAIL...WHITEHORSE PARK...GRIFFIN PARK...SCHROEDER PARK... TOM PEARCE PARK...REDWOOD...HARBECK-FRUITDALE...MURPHY AND WILDERVILLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 4254 12354 4255 12323 4204 12324 4205 12338 TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 173DEG 26KT 4220 12331 BPN
The Medford radar (KMAX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:33 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter 1.5 miles west of downtown Williams reported heavy rain with flooding of nearby roads. 1.0 inch hail was reported stripping leaves from trees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 570731.