Strong easterly flow caused rough surf and strong rip currents late in the month. Several dozen rip current related rescues and two drownings were reported along the Volusia County coastline.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MLB wrote it up.
Strong easterly flow caused rough surf and strong rip currents late in the month. Several dozen rip current related rescues and two drownings were reported along the Volusia County coastline.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 3:45 AM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 445 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES... ...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK... TODAY... MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES. THE MID LVL RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THE LWR MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE ATLC RIDGE WITH H9 WINDS TURNING SE WITH LGT/VARIABLE FLOW IN THE H8-H7 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SE-NW ORIENTED CONVERGENT SHOWER BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES INTO MID DAY. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AND COLD MID LVL TEMPS ALOFT NEAR -9C TO -10C AT H5 AS WELL AS SFC DWPTS BACK UP NEAR 70 SHOULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH NAM INDICATING HIGH CAPE AND DEEPER CONVECTION FROM OSCEOLA TO WESTERN ORANGE AND LAKE COUNTY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR. EAST SWELLS AT THE BEACHES WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL AGAIN BE ISSUED. A ELEVATED RISK WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. TONIGHT... LINGERING EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WELL INTERIOR AREAS. FCST MODEL SHOW THE BEGINNING OF SOME LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THIS EVENING (A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK) BUT DO NOT THINK ANY ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MON-TUE... WX PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AS THE ERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS MERGES WITH A SHORT WAVE FRONTAL TROF PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THIS MERGER OCCURS...THE WRN FLANK OF A SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER WILL COLLAPSE...LEAVING A VERY WEAK PGRAD IN PLACE. WINDS THRU THE H100- H50 LYR BCMG VRBL AOB 5KTS...GENERALLY S/SE THRU THE H100-H85 LYR VEERING TO S/SW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. EARLY FORMATION OF BOTH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ALL BUT GUARANTEED UNDER SUCH A WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG. DEEP LYR MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP UP AS A STUBBORN DRY POCKET IN THE HH70- H50 LYR SLOWLY ERODES...BUT WITH H85-H50 STEERING WINDS EXPECTD TO BCM LGT/VRBL...STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE SLOW. FURTHERMORE...UPR LVL WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE WEAK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE SW AS THE FRONTAL TROF PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TIGHTENS THE MID/UPR LVL PGRAD. THESE WINDS ALREADY HAVE PUSHED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WRN GOMEX...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED NEAR SATURATION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL FL THRU THE H50-H10 LYR THRU THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS MID/UPR LVL DECK WILL CURTAIL SFC HEATING AND LIMIT LOW LVL DIURNAL INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW WHILE H50 TEMPS ARND -10C HELP TO GENERATE SOME RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATES THRU THE H70-H50 LYR...GENERALLY IN THE 6.5- 7.0C/KM RANGE. THIS COMBINATION WILL ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL... LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO DVLP OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO INTERACT. WILL KEEP MAX STORM COVERAGE IN THE SCT CATEGORY...INCREASING FROM 20-30PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 40-50PCT OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS...DECREASING TO 20PCT COASTAL AND 30PCT INTERIOR FOR THE EVNG HRS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE DIURNAL TEMP VARIATION...KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE M/U80S WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY HOLDING MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S. WED-SAT... LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD AS A GENUINE SHIFT IN THE LCL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT HOW THAT PATTERN SHIFT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF. GFS/ECMWF MID RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING ANY SIG RIDGING WELL E OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LVL FRONTAL TROF PINCHES OFF INTO A CUTOFF OVER THE SE CONUS...AND BOTH INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES DVLPG IN THE VCNTY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LIFTING NWD TOWARD FL...PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW PRES FEATURE AS AN OPEN H100-H70 WAVE OVER THE SE GOMEX THRU THU BEFORE DVLPG A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION CELL N OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE GFS DVLPS A CLOSED H100-H70 CIRCULATION CELL OVER THE YUCATAN BY DAYBREAK WED AND DRIFTS IT ACRS THE FL STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD GENERATE HIGH POPS THRU MIDWEEK AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS ACRS THE FL PENINSULA...BUT NRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUGGESTS LOWER POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. INDEED...OVER THE PAST 24HRS MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR RESPECTIVE POPS FROM THU ONWARD. STILL LOOKING AT A MUCH WETTER WX PATTERN FOR E CENTRAL FL...BUT WILL NEED TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT BEFORE THE DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED. && .AVIATION... ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CHC FOR MVFR SHRA FROM KDAB TO KSUA. SCT SHRA/CHC OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING FROM KISM-KLEE...BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY WEST OF KMCO PAST 00Z. && .MARINE... EAST WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS EARLY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS... WITH SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR THE COAST AND 4-5 FT ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS NEAR SHORE THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. MON-TUE...HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS AN ERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS PUSHES INTO FL AND GRADUALLY MERGES WITH WITH A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL RETAIN ENOUGH OF ITS IDENTITY TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE BREEZE...BCMG E BY NOON EACH DAY AS THE WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EARLY FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS 3-4FT ON MON SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT ON TUE. ISOLD SHRA/TSRAS. WED-THU...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LIFT NWD TOWARD FL THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY HI DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD AS MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE OR PINCH OFF INTO CLOSED LOW. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC FOR WED WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS BCMG ERLY BY DAYBREAK THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...UP TO 5FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT AS THE FETCH OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT SWELL ENERGY FROM THE OPEN ATLC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 70 86 70 / 30 10 30 20 MCO 89 71 90 71 / 40 10 40 30 MLB 86 71 85 70 / 30 10 30 20 VRB 86 70 86 70 / 30 10 20 20 LEE 89 72 90 73 / 40 20 50 40 SFB 90 70 89 71 / 30 10 40 30 ORL 89 72 89 72 / 40 10 40 30 FPR 86 68 87 69 / 30 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 448 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-010100- FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY- NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY- NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 448 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .RIP CURRENT IMPACT... LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. THE STRONGEST SEAWARD PULL FROM RIP CURRENTS WILL BE AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. REMEMBER TO SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...NEVER ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST IT...AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY. INSTEAD...TREAD WATER AND THEN SWIM AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE CURRENT. THEN ONCE OUT OF THE CURRENT...SWIM DIRECTLY BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... A FEW STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS ACROSS INLAND LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO MID WEEK AND DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO LATE WEEK WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. VOLKMER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 53-year old male from Kissimmee was pulled from the surf at Daytona Beach around 1430 EST on May 31 and died an hour later in the hospital.
A 17-year-old male from Georgia disappeared in the surf at New Smyrna Beach around 1600 EST on May 31. His body washed ashore the following day.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Coastal Volusia County | 2015-05-31 | 53 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 569502, 569503.