An incoming front brought high winds to portions of the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to portions of the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 17, 4:33 PM PST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
433 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015
.UPDATE...I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...COOS COUNTY...AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS...AND THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE COAST AND AREAS
JUST INLAND BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. ANY STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY VERY GUSTY WINDS. NO LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE WATERS BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...THUS THE UPDATE.
ADDITIONALLY...AM KEEPING AN EYE ON WINDS AT THE COAST FOR HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN 4MB OTH-ACV GRADIENT WITH CURRENT GUSTS
40-50MPH AND THE EXPECTED MAX OF 8MB PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
EVENING. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN CONCERN INTO LATE
TONIGHT REMAINS LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE COAST AND ABOVE THE
UMPQUA VALLEY NORTHWARD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 30 TO 50 KT BUT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
THIS EVENING. ALSO MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY THIS EVENING, BETWEEN AROUND 03Z AND 05Z, AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INLAND. THIS MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS.
BESIDES THE WINDS, THERE IS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD
FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BECOMING MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 10Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
DROP THE FREEZING LEVEL FROM AROUND 9500 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 5500 FT MSL AS RAIN AND SNOW TURNS TO SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS OF VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED AT 415 PM, SATURDAY JANUARY 17, 2015...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT AS HIGH AND VERY STEEP WIND WAVES COMBINE
WITH A MODERATE WEST SWELL. ALSO AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST
THIS EVENING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS,
MAINLY FROM PORT ORFORD NORTHWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST
DECREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP SUNDAY MORNING AS SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES AND BUILDING WEST SWELL OF 11 TO 13 FT AT 12 SECONDS
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WIND SEAS WILL LOWER LATER SUNDAY BUT STEEP
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 10 FEET ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY
WIND WAVES. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK A COUPLE FRONTS WILL MOVE BRUSH
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS AND A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL MAY BUILD INTO THE WATERS. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PAUSE IN
RAINFALL. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH A 90-100KT JETSTREAM THAT IS FORECAST TO
COME ASHORE THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRING THE NEXT ROUND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH
AROUND 8 OR 9 PM. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNING THAT WERE ISSUED EARLIER
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGHOUT THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SW OREGON LATE TONIGHT
THEN THROUGH THE KLAMATH BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO 4-5000 FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY FOR WARMING AND DRYING AT
THE UPPER RIDGES. UNFORTUNATELY THIS ALSO MEANS STRONG INVERSIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTER DEVELOPING AT THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. /FB
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LONG TERM WILL BE
LARGELY OR ENTIRELY DRY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A STABLE
AIR MASS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG, OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THEREAFTER, THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER THAN NORMAL BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES. A COMPARISON OF THE
PREVIOUS FEW RUNS SHOWS THAT THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE
ECMWF. THUS, THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ARE FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA...COOS COUNTY ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO
FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD, THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN STRONGER
RIDGING THAN THE GFS BUT IS NOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY AND THEN FASTER/STRONGER WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD
INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG. /DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.
NSK/DW/CCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0347 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
01/17/2015 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS. OBSERVER
LOCATION 1.6 MILES FROM HWY 199 IN O BRIEN.
&&
CSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The ODOT sensor on Highway 101 near Humbug Mountain recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 69 mph, recorded at 17/2032 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 549996.