Another in a series of storms brought high winds to portions of southwest and south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Another in a series of storms brought high winds to portions of southwest and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 5:34 PM PST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PST WED DEC 9 2015
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR BECOMING AN ISSUE AGAIN. MVFR CIGS/VIS COULD SPREAD INTO
THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MTNS OBSCURATIONS. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PST WED DEC 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WELL-DEFINED AND OCCLUDED STORM
IS WRAPPING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WATERS AND REPRESENTS
THE FIRST WEATHER-MAKER IN A SERIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH ARE STREAMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND FLOODING IS A CONCERN...MAINLY URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM...AND WILDFIRE BURN SCAR-ORIENTED...VERSUS MAIN STEM RIVERS
AT THIS TIME. SNOW IMPACTS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE TAIL END
OF THIS STORM...AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
COOLS AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN. WIND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MOST SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AS A 150KT JET
TAKES AIM AT THE CWA...AND 70KT 700MB WINDS BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE'LL PROVIDE SOME DETAIL ON EACH SPECIFIC
IMPACT.
WIND...LATEST RAP13 OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING ABOUT A 10MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ACV AND OTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS...COMBINED WITH 50KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 2000 FEET...SUGGEST
A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AT THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AT THE COAST AND WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD. FURTHER INLAND...WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY...THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND MOST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS AREN'T
ALIGNED PERFECTLY FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT STILL
SHOULD MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION...AND
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EAST SIDE WINDS ARE ALREADY
BECOMING GUSTY...MUCH FASTER THAN GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING TOWARDS AN EARLIER START TIME THIS EVENING. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE PINPOINTS GUSTS INTO THE 60S AT
LEAST IN FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. WINDS
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL
REMAIN GUSTY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS STORM THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORTS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS THIS IS NORMALLY ONE OF THE WETTEST
TIMES OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODEL TRANSPORT PLUMES, WHICH PLACES THE MAIN AXIS OF TRANSPORT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
OREGON COASTLINES. THE END RESULT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE THE COASTAL RANGE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AS WELL AS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PREDOMINANT FLOW
WEST TO SOUTHWEST, THIS ALSO PRIMES THE CASCADES FOR MAXIMUM UPSLOPE
PRODUCTION. LONG STORY SHORT, WE ARE IN FOR A VERY WET TIME FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NEARLY ALL OF THE WEST SIDE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH OVER 3 INCHES OF
RAIN NEAR BROOKINGS AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL
RANGES AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EAST OF THE CASCADES,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, WHILE
THE CASCADES THEMSELVES COULD EASILY SEE UP TO 2 AND A HALF TO 3
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND UP TO AN INCH MORE RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6000 TO 7000 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
FIRST ARRIVES TONIGHT, BUT THESE WILL FALL QUICKLY TO 4000 TO 4500
FEET AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE AMPLE MOISTURE, THIS COULD SHAPE UP TO BE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
FOR OUR MOUNTAINS SO FAR THIS SEASON. ANYWHERE FROM 5 INCHES TO A
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY, LIKELY PRODUCING A FEW MORE INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS WILL IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES, HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE AT PDXWSWMFR FOR
MORE DETAILS.
ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND IT
ALSO APPEARS TO BE A VERY WET EVENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS, BUT WILL FALL AGAIN WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE. AGAIN,
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. ALL TOLD, FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND INTO THE COASTAL RANGE
COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 12 INCHES,WITH UP TO 7 INCHES IN THE CASCADES,
3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE EAST
SIDE. WHEN THIS IS TRANSLATED TO SNOW FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS, THE
REAL FUN BEGINS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS BRING SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, WITH
UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE. KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE 5
DAY TOTALS, AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE EXPECTED MOISTURE, HAVE ALSO ISSUED FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE COAST INTO THE KALMIOPSIS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AS WELL AS FOR AREA WILDFIRE BURN SCARS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
YEARS. SUSPECT THAT URBAN AREAS, AS WELL AS MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD, AND LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS
ARE LIKELY FOR UNSTABLE SLOPES AND THE USUAL PRONE AREAS. -BPN
OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
TRANSITION LOOKS FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE A
TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LESSER PRECIPITATION AS THE
WEEKEND A-R EVENT PUSHES SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DIP TO 1500-2000
FEET BY EARLY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THAT THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
COULD MEAN IMPACTS FOR THE LOWER WEST SIDE PASSES. UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD BRIEFLY WITH EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THE BEST BEST IS FOR SHOWERS TO TAPER CONSIDERABLY IN
THIS WINDOW. BUT THE POSSIBILITY LOOKS GOOD FOR MORE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TO RIPPLE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY, SO SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PICK BACK UP. ADDITIONAL LOWER ELEVATION SNOWS LOOK
POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS PATTERN BUT IT'S NOT REALISTIC TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY AMOUNTS OR EXACT SNOW LEVELS A WEEK OUT. STAVISH
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST WEDNESDAY 9 DEC 2015...SEAS WILL BE
HIGH AND DOMINATED BY A WEST SWELL TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH GALES TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
STORM FORCE BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY BUT SEAS WILL BECOME VERY HIGH WITH LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS BUILDING TO 25 TO 30 FEET. A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING WAS ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE VERY HIGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR FOR ORZ025-027-028.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ021-022.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ORZ023.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ027-028.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ026.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ083>085.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ080.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ080.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080>083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ376.
FJB/FJB/FJBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 PM PST WED DEC 9 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0329 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
12/09/2015 M1.44 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL OBSERVER LOCATION 1.6 MILES
FROM HWY 199 IN O BRIEN.
&&
CZSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Squaw Peak RAWS recorded gusts exceeding 82 mph continuously during this interval. The peak gust was 87 mph, recorded at 09/2239 PST and at 10/0039 PST.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 68 mph at 09/2213 PST, a gust to 71 mph at 09/2313 PST, and a gust to 79 mph at 10/0013 PST. The APRSWXNET sensor at Brookings recorded a gust to 60 mph at 09/2312 PST.
The Calimus RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 10/0000 PST.
The Summit RAWS recorded a gust to 76 mph at 10/0403 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609824, 609823, 609825, 609826.