Heavy westerly swell brought high surf to the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy westerly swell brought high surf to the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 6, 3:09 PM PST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PST SUN DEC 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEK AS A VERY STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO
SEND STORM SYSTEMS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
MOVING IN FAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE COAST
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE
OTH-ACV GRADIENT PEAKS AT -8.0 TO -9.0 MB EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN SLIGHTLY ONSHORE THEN AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODEL 925 MB WINDS ARE ABOUT 65KT, SO SOME OF
THESE WINDS WILL TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS 60-70 MPH GUSTS.
A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST FROM ABOUT CAPE
SEBASTIAN NORTHWARD. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR INLAND
FROM THE COAST INTO NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. OVER THE EAST SIDE,
700 MB WINDS ARE ALSO QUITE STRONG MONDAY, SO WE HAVE ISSUED WIND
ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WARNINGS THERE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CA/OR BORDER, SO WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SUCH THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FT MSL WILL
RECEIVE ANY SNOW. CRATER LAKE MAY HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FT MSL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVE WEST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH IN
NORTHWEST OREGON AND WASHINGTON. HOWEVER, COASTAL AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY WILL PROBABLY GET ANOTHER 2-3
INCHES. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFR) IS IN EFFECT HIGHLIGHTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS,
BUT MAIN STEM FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK. WHILE
THERE CAN BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE MUCH DRIER. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A
STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPILDE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A STRONG
WESTERLY JET STREAM WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE PACNW COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIP SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED ACTIVE
PATTERN TO THE AREA WITH A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FOLLOWED BY A SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH PATTERN LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA AS WELL AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWEST 65 KT 700MB JET
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BRING A COOLER AND SHOWERY
AIR MASS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 3500 TO 4000
FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION, AS WELL AS
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET, DURING THIS PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY, WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS.
NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OVER
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. /CC
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND A FRONT. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY TO
COASTAL AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
TO THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES INLAND, INCLUDING
AT KRBG AND KLMT. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST SUNDAY 6 DEC 2015...THE LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE WATERS ARE SHOWING SEAS JUST OVER 26 FEET
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE MARINE WATERS THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE DECAY. DESPITE THIS STEEP AND HEAVY
SEAS ARE A GOOD BET THIS EVENING INTO AT LAST MONDAY MORNING. ALSO
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER MARINE ZONE
370, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, THIS HAVE ISSUED A STORM
WARNING STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY. HOWEVER IT'S
POSSIBLE WINDS COULD DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE A FEW HOURS PRIOR.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THERE'S A CHANCE WINDS
COULD APPROACH GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING INCREASING WEST SWELL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING OUT
NEAR 24 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS ENP MODEL WAS SHOWING
MUCH HIGHER WAVES AND THIS MORNINGS 12Z RUN IS LOWER. OF NOTE
YESTERDAYS MORNING RUN WAS ALSO LOWER. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY FROM
RUN TO RUN, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL BE. SO
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR
ORZ023-025.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ370.
MAS/CC/MAPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
358 PM PST SUN DEC 6 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0357 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S MOUNT SHASTA 41.30N 122.32W
12/06/2015 M1.37 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM PST. INCLUDES 2
INCHES OF WET SNOW. OBSERVER LOCATION MT.
SHASTA.
0355 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
12/06/2015 M1.90 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HR. TOTAL ENDING AT 3 PM PST OBSERVER
LOCATION 1.6 MILES FROM HWY 199 IN O BRIEN.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
Offshore buoys showed heavy westerly swell which resulted in breakers of 29 feet or greater along the coast during this interval.
Offshore buoys showed heavy westerly swell which resulted in breakers of 29 feet or greater along the coast during this interval.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609998, 609999.